为推进淡水养殖业的绿色可持续发展，国家以及各地陆续出台相关淡水养殖环境规制来加强淡水养殖污染防治和水生生态保护。淡水养殖环境规制在促进淡水养殖业以及绿色发展、生态环境综合治理的同时，也对耕地利用的变化产生了影响，亟待以科学合理的方式评估淡水养殖环境规制对于耕地利用变化的影响，为合理配置耕地资源，提升淡水养殖环境规制的治理效能提供参考。

本文以毗连太湖上游地区且紧邻滆湖的重要淡水养殖区域——宜兴市为研究区，梳理淡水养殖环境规制的政策演进并分析政策实施的现实效果，从时间和空间两方面来探究规制影响区和非规制影响区耕地利用的时空演变特征以及两区域间的差异，在此基础上以多维度视角量化研究淡水养殖环境规制对耕地利用变化的影响，全文结论如下：

（1）太湖地区淡水养殖环境规制经历了从基础性的污染控制和结构调整向更加严格的生态保护、区域规划、标准化管理的转变。自2017开始出台了影响太湖地区耕地利用变化的系列关键环境规制政策，通过空间管制、产业调整和生态修复等措施，不仅重构了淡水养殖的空间布局和推动了淡水养殖业向生态化、绿色化转型，也对耕地利用变化产生了深远影响。典型村镇的调研也验证了淡水养殖环境规制的实施成效，反映出环境规制对复杂人-地关系协调的重要意义。

（2）规制影响区与非规制影响区耕地利用变化的特征也在差异性。时空变化方面，规制影响区的耕地数量变化拐点提前出现，且2017年后转入强度显著增强，动态度呈现“增长-收敛”的阶段性特征，流向分析中水体转耕地的占比显著高于非规制影响区。空间变化分析结果显示规制影响区耕地景观斑块指数（CA）和聚集度指数（AI）均高于非规制影响区、规制影响区耕地形状指数（SHAPE_MN）显著提升，规制影响区的耕地最大斑块指数（LPI）呈现出更明显两极化趋势。

（3）双重差分模型（DID）回归结果表明，淡水养殖环境规制对耕地利用变化具有显著的影响。通过空间管制、产业调整和生态修复工程的三维驱动，显著促进了耕地变化速率的加快、耕地面积的增加以及耕地斑块的优势地位，并使得耕地形态的规则化转变。社会经济因素、自然条件以及规制区实施距离也对耕地利用变化产生显著影响。

To promote the green and sustainable development of freshwater aquaculture, China and local governments have successively implemented environmental regulations to strengthen pollution prevention and aquatic ecological protection in freshwater aquaculture. Benefiting from unique natural advantages, Jiangsu Province has established freshwater aquaculture as a pillar agricultural industry. However, water quality and ecological health in Taihu Lake directly impact both Jiangsu's ecological environment and the development of its freshwater aquaculture sector. While freshwater aquaculture environmental regulations facilitate industry greening and comprehensive ecological governance, they also influence cultivated land use changes, yet fail to fully meet the requirements for efficient utilization of cultivated land resources. Therefore, there is an urgent need to scientifically evaluate the impact of freshwater aquaculture environmental regulations on cultivated land use changes, providing references for rational allocation of cultivated land resources and enhancing the governance efficacy of these regulations.

This study focuses on Yixing City—a critical freshwater aquaculture area adjacent to the upper reaches of Taihu Lake and Gehu Lake. Combining policy text analysis and field surveys, we clarify the policy evolution of freshwater aquaculture environmental regulations and assess their practical implementation effects. Utilizing land use data from 2013 to 2021 and a 1 km × 1 km grid division, we explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land use in regulated and non-regulated areas and compare their differences. Finally, a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is applied to quantify the multidimensional impacts of freshwater aquaculture environmental regulations on cultivated land use changes. The main conclusions are as follows:

(1) Environmental regulations for freshwater aquaculture in the Taihu Lake region have evolved from basic pollution control and structural adjustments to stricter ecological conservation, regional planning, and standardized management. Since 2017, key policies influencing cultivated land use changes have been implemented through spatial control, industrial restructuring, and ecological restoration. These measures reshaped the spatial layout of aquaculture, promoted its ecological and green transformation, and profoundly impacted cultivated land use. Field surveys in typical villages further validated the effectiveness of these regulations.

(2) Significant differences exist in cultivated land use changes between regulated and non-regulated areas. Spatiotemporally, the inflection point of cultivated land quantity in regulated areas emerged earlier, with intensified conversion rates after 2017 and a "growth-convergence" dynamic trend. Water-to-cropland conversion accounted for a higher proportion in regulated areas. Spatial analysis revealed that regulated areas exhibited higher Class Area (CA) and Aggregation Index (AI) for cultivated land patches, significantly improved Shape Index (SHAPE_MN), and a more polarized trend in the Largest Patch Index (LPI).

(3) The DID regression results demonstrate that freshwater aquaculture environmental regulations significantly influence cultivated land use changes. Driven by spatial control, industrial adjustments, and ecological restoration, these regulations accelerated the rate of cultivated land change, increased cropland area, enhanced the dominance of cultivated land patches, and standardized land morphology. Socioeconomic factors, natural conditions, and proximity to regulated areas also significantly affected cultivated land use changes.

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