在乡村振兴与农业产业转型升级协同推进的宏观背景下，农业固定资产投资通过改善农业生产条件、提升农业现代化水平，成为促进农业农村高质量发展的关键手段。然而，近年来农业固定资产投资虽然总额在持续增长，但在部分地区已出现投入与产出不匹配、资源利用效率不高等问题，可见仅靠投资规模扩张已难以支撑高质量发展目标。为此，本文聚焦农业产业结构转型背景，系统测度农业固定资产投资效率的演变特征，并深入剖析其影响机制，旨在推动农业投资实现从规模增长向效率提升的转变。

本文基于2011-2023年中国30省面板数据，构建基于超越对数函数的随机前沿模型和Malmquist生产率指数，系统测度了农业固定投资的产值效率与产量效率，进而分析其区域分布特征与时间演进规律。在此基础上，本文以测算得到的效率值为被解释变量，运用面板Tobit模型实证检验农业产业结构升级对投资效率的影响机制。通过引入变量替换、解释变量滞后等多种稳健性检验方式，验证了模型估计结果的稳健性与可靠性。此外，进一步采用分组回归方法，从人力资本水平与财政支农力度两个维度识别产业结构升级效应的异质性，揭示不同区域要素禀赋条件下结构优化对投资效率的差异化影响，为优化农业资本配置与提升农业投资绩效提供实证依据。

本文主要的研究结论如下：（1）2011-2023年我国农业固定资产投资规模年均增长25.54%，2023年总额达40019.15亿元，产值与产量效率分别为0.441与0.681，整体效率保持稳定，未出现边际递减拐点。（2）投资效率存在明显的区域分异，呈现东部高、中西部低的空间格局，反映出资源禀赋与产业结构对效率的深刻影响。（3）Tobit回归结果表明，农业产业结构升级对投资效率具有显著正向作用，且在一系列稳健性检验下该效应依然稳健。进一步的异质性分析表明人力资本水平和财政支农力度的提升能够显著增强产业结构升级对农业固定资产投资效率的促进作用。

基于上述研究结论，本文提出以下政策建议：一是实施区域分类施策，推动农业投资差异化发展；二是强化结构导向，推动农业投资向高附加值领域集聚；三是加强人力资本培育，释放效率红利；四是优化财政投入结构，增强政策协同效应。

Under the macro background of coordinated promotion of rural revitalization and transformation and upgrading of agricultural industry, agricultural fixed assets investment has become a key means to promote high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas by improving agricultural production conditions and upgrading the level of agricultural modernization. However, in recent years, although the total amount of agricultural fixed assets investment has continued to grow, there have been problems such as mismatch between input and output, low efficiency of resource utilization in some regions. It can be seen that it is difficult to support high-quality development goals only by expanding the scale of investment. Therefore, this paper focuses on the background of agricultural industrial structure transformation, systematically measures the evolution characteristics of agricultural fixed assets investment efficiency, and deeply analyzes its impact mechanism, aiming to promote the transformation of agricultural investment from scale growth to efficiency improvement.

This article is based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2023, and constructs a stochastic frontier model based on the transcendental logarithmic function and Malmquist productivity index to systematically measure the output efficiency and yield efficiency of agricultural fixed investment, and then analyze its regional distribution characteristics and temporal evolution laws. On this basis, this article uses the measured efficiency value as the dependent variable to empirically test the impact mechanism of agricultural industrial structure upgrading on investment efficiency using a panel Tobit model. The robustness and reliability of the model estimation results were verified by introducing various robustness testing methods such as variable substitution and explanatory variable lag. In addition, further group regression methods were used to identify the heterogeneity of industrial structure upgrading effects from two dimensions: human capital level and fiscal support for agriculture. This revealed the differential impact of structural optimization on investment efficiency under different regional factor endowment conditions, providing empirical evidence for optimizing agricultural capital allocation and improving agricultural investment performance.

The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The average annual growth rate of China's agricultural fixed assets investment from 2011 to 2023 was 25.54%, and the total amount in 2023 was 4001.915 billion yuan. The output value and output efficiency were 0.441 and 0.681 respectively. The overall efficiency remained stable without marginal decline inflection point; (2) There is a significant regional differentiation in investment efficiency, showing a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the central and western regions, reflecting the profound impact of resource endowment and industrial structure on efficiency; (3) The Tobit regression results indicate that the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure has a significant positive effect on investment efficiency, and this effect remains robust under a series of robustness tests; Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the improvement of human capital level and financial support for agriculture can significantly enhance the role of industrial structure upgrading in promoting the efficiency of agricultural fixed assets investment.

Based on empirical results, this article proposes the following policy recommendations: firstly, implement regional classification policies to promote differentiated development of agricultural investment; The second is to strengthen structural orientation and promote the agglomeration of agricultural investment towards high value-added fields; Thirdly, strengthen the cultivation of human capital and unleash efficiency dividends; The fourth is to optimize the structure of fiscal investment and enhance policy synergy.

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