订单农业 (Contract Farming, CF) 因其在提高农业生产力、增加收入以及增强小农户市场准入方面的作用而广受认可。尽管已有研究表明订单农业在提升农产品产量和农户收入水平方面具有显著作用效果，但其在减贫领域，尤其是在干旱和半干旱地区（Arid and Semi-Arid Lands, ASALs）的有效性仍缺乏明确的定论。ASALs地区面临恶劣的气候条件、薄弱的基础设施和经济脆弱性，加剧了粮食不安全和财务不稳定，使得减贫成为一项艰巨挑战。在此背景下，订单农业通过提供结构化市场准入、价格保障和技术支持，能够增强农户抵御市场波动的韧性，同时帮助小农户投资于提升生产力的生产资料。

本研究以肯尼亚ASALs地区的家禽养殖户为对象，研究订单农业对家庭收入和多维减贫的影响，重点考察信贷获取的中介效应。研究采用分层随机抽样法，在巴林戈（Baringo）、纳库鲁（Nakuru）和埃尔格约-马拉奎特（Elgeyo Marakwet）三县选取410户家庭进行混合方法分析：使用双栏模型（Double Hurdle Model）分析影响农户参与订单农业的因素，多项逻辑回归（Multinomial Logistic Regression）探究合同类型偏好，人工神经网络（ANN）模型捕捉决策关键变量中的非线性关系，内生转换回归（Endogenous Switching Regression）控制选择偏误以精准比较参与者与非参与者的差异。结构方程模型（SEM）量化信贷获取的中介效应（占总效应的23%），倾向得分匹配（PSM）在控制可观测混杂因素后分离出订单农业对减贫的净影响，多维贫困指数（MPI）则从非货币维度衡量福利效应。

研究结果表明，订单农业参与具有收入提升和减少贫困的双重作用。收入提升方面，订单农业参与者家庭收入较非参与者显著提高74%。书面合同因具有法律约束力且便于获取信贷，收益最高（+95.7%）；口头合同虽更具灵活性，但因依赖非正式网络导致收入增长较低。若非参与者参与订单农业，其收入可增长45.6%，凸显该模式的未开发潜力。SEM结果表明，信贷获取渠道在合作社融资（CF）总效应中起到23%的中介作用，从而促进了对饲料、疫苗及基础设施等生产资料的投入。

减贫效果方面，PSM估计结果显示，参与订单农业使极端贫困发生率降低21.20%、贫困深度减少48.87%、贫困差距缩小39.00%。异质性分析表明，女性主导家庭虽实现MPI显著下降，但在贫困深度上仍存差距；男性主导家庭则通过生产性资产获取更高收入。土地规模较小且邻近市场的农户受益最大，表明交通可达性与规模经济的重要性。

尽管订单农业具有变革潜力，但金融排斥、性别不平等和市场失衡等结构性障碍阻碍了农户公平性参与。因此，政策制定者需优先推动信贷计划优化、性别敏感政策和农村基建投资；简化合同条款、整合争议解决机制、采用数字化平台管理合同与市场接入可提升可及性；口头合同可探索“价格保障+正规化”的混合模式，现货市场需建立价格稳定机制。通过系统性破除壁垒并鼓励创新，订单农业有望推动ASALs边缘化农业社区的可持续发展，创造长期经济增长机遇。

Contract farming (CF) has been widely recognized for enhancing agricultural productivity, increasing incomes, and strengthening market access for smallholder farmers. However, while CF’s role in boosting production and income levels is well-documented, its effectiveness in poverty alleviation, particularly in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), remains unclear. These regions face harsh climatic conditions, limited infrastructure, and economic vulnerabilities that exacerbate food insecurity and financial instability, making poverty reduction a challenge. In response, CF provides structured market access, price guarantees, and technical support, fostering resilience against market fluctuations while enabling smallholders to invest in productivity-enhancing inputs.

This study evaluates CF’s impact on household income and multidimensional poverty reduction among poultry farmers in Kenya’s ASALs, emphasizing credit access as a mediating factor. The research was conducted in Baringo, Nakuru, and Elgeiyo Marakwet counties, surveying 410 households using a stratified random sampling approach. The study employed a mixed method approach where, double hurdle model assessed factors influencing CF participation, while the multinomial logistic regression examined contract preferences. Artificial Neural Network models identified key determinants of decision-making, ensuring non-linear relationships were captured. Endogenous switching regression was employed to control for selection bias, providing accurate comparisons between CF participants and non-participants. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to quantify the mediation effects of credit access, while Propensity Score Matching (PSM) isolated CF's impact on poverty reduction by controlling for observed confounders. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measured non-monetary deprivation across critical welfare indicators.

The findings showed that, CF significantly increases household income, with participants earning 74% more than non-participants. Written contracts yield the highest gains (+95.7%), offering enforceable terms that facilitate access to credit. Verbal contracts, though more adaptable, result in lower income growth due to their reliance on informal networks. Non-participants could increase incomes by 45.6% had they engaged in CF, emphasizing the sector's untapped potential. SEM results confirm that credit access mediates 23% of CF’s total effect, enabling investments in inputs such as feed, vaccines, and infrastructure.

Beyond income, CF has profound effects on poverty reduction. PSM estimates reveal that participation reduces extreme poverty incidence by 21.20%, poverty severity by 48.87%, and the poverty gap by 39.00%, demonstrating significant welfare improvements. Demographic analysis showed heterogeneity in outcomes: female-headed households achieved significant MPI reductions but faced persistent gaps in poverty severity, while male-headed households leveraged productive assets for greater income gains. Smaller landholders and those closer to markets benefited most, emphasizing the role of accessibility and economies of scale.

 Despite CF’s transformative potential, structural barriers such as financial exclusion, gender disparities, and market inequities hinder equitable participation. Policymakers should prioritize interventions like improved credit schemes, gender-sensitive policies, and rural infrastructure investments. Simplifying contract terms, integrating dispute resolution mechanisms, and adopting digital platforms for contract management and market access can enhance accessibility. Verbal contracts, while flexible, could benefit from hybrid models incorporating price guarantees and formalization, while spot markets require mechanisms to stabilize prices. By addressing these systemic barriers and fostering innovation, CF can drive sustainable development and unlock long-term economic opportunities for marginalized farming communities in ASALs.

Abdulla, Nadhiya, Natalia Vasylieva, and Iryna Volovyk. 2023. “On Improvements on Agricultural Extension Services for Contract Farming.”

Adebisi, L. O., O. Jimoh, J. Asuquo, K. K. Osasona, and E. O. Ojediran. 2019. “Effect of Contract Farming on Poultry Farming Households Food Security in Osun State, Nigeria.” Agro-Science 18(1):45–49.

Adem Kelifa. 2023. “Review of Tobit, Heckman and Double Hurdle Econometric Models: Supported with Evidences from the Studies Conducted in Ethiopia.” Springer 3(6). doi: 10.1007/s43546-023-00478-5.

Adnan, K. M. Mehedi, Liu Ying, Zeraibi Ayoub, Swati Anindita Sarker, Rashid Menhas, Feiyu Chen, and Man Yu. 2020. “Risk Management Strategies to Cope Catastrophic Risks in Agriculture: The Case of Contract Farming, Diversification and Precautionary Savings.” Agriculture 10(8):351.

Agidew, Alem-meta Assefa, and K. N. Singh. 2018. “Determinants of Food Insecurity in the Rural Farm Households in South Wollo Zone of Ethiopia: The Case of the Teleyayen Sub-Watershed.” Agricultural and Food Economics 6(1):10.

Akhtar, Shoaib, Azhar Abbas, Hazem S. Kassem, Salim Bagadeem, Raza Ullah, and Bader Alhafi Alotaibi. 2021. “Sustainable Crop Production, the Concurrent Adoption of Contract Farming, and Managing Risks through Income Diversification.” Agronomy 11(5). doi: 10.3390/agronomy11050973.

Alkire, S., JE Foster, S. Seth, ME Santos, and J. Roche. 2015. “Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 5–The Alkire-Foster Counting Methodology.”

Anang, Benjamin Tetteh, and Clever Kwasi Apedo. 2023. “The Influence of Off-Farm Work on Farm Income among Smallholder Farm Households in Northern Ghana.” Cogent Economics and Finance 11(1). doi: 10.1080/23322039.2023.2196861.

Andersson Djurfeldt, Agnes, Aida Cuthbert Isinika, and Fred Mawunyo Dzanku. 2018. Agriculture, Diversification, and Gender in Rural Africa: Longitudinal Perspectives from Six Countries. Oxford University Press.

Anyona, Douglas N., Mercy M. Musyoka, Kennedy O. Ogolla, Judith K. Chemuliti, Isaac K. Nyamongo, and Salome A. Bukachi. 2023. “Characterization of Indigenous Chicken Production and Related Constraints: Insights from Smallholder Households in Rural Kenya.” Scientific African 20:e01717. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01717.

Ao, Guiyan, Qiang Liu, Li Qin, Minghao Chen, Shuai Liu, and Weiguang Wu. 2021. “Organization Model, Vertical Integration, and Farmers’ Income Growth: Empirical Evidence from Large-Scale Farmers in Lin’an, China.” Plos One 16(6):e0252482.

Bahati, Ibrahim, Giuliano Martiniello, and Gumataw Kifle Abebe. 2022. “The Implications of Sugarcane Contract Farming on Land Rights, Labor, and Food Security in the Bunyoro Sub-Region, Uganda.” Land Use Policy 122:106326.

Barrett, Christopher B., Maren E. Bachke, Marc F. Bellemare, Hope C. Michelson, Sudha Narayanan, and Thomas F. Walker. 2012. “Smallholder Participation in Contract Farming: Comparative Evidence from Five Countries.” World Development 40(4):715–30.

Barrett, Christopher B., Thomas Reardon, Johan Swinnen, and David Zilberman. 2020. “Agri-Food Value Chain Revolutions in Low-and Middle-Income Countries.” Journal of Economic Literature 58:1–67.

Bellemare, Marc F. 2012. “As You Sow, so Shall You Reap: The Welfare Impacts of Contract Farming.” World Development 40(7):1418–34.

Bellemare, Marc F., and Jeffrey R. Bloem. 2018. “Does Contract Farming Improve Welfare? A Review.” World Development 112:259–71.

Bellemare, Marc F., Yu Na Lee, and Lindsey Novak. 2021. “Contract Farming as Partial Insurance.” World Development 140:105274. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105274.

Bellemare, Marc F., and Sunghun Lim. 2018. “In All Shapes and Colors: Varieties of Contract Farming.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 40(3):379–401.

Bidzakin, John Kanburi, Simon C. Fialor, Dadson Awunyo-Vitor, and Iddrisu Yahaya. 2020. “Contract Farming and Rice Production Efficiency in Ghana.” Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 10(3):269–84. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-11-2018-0160.

Bijman, Jos, Innocent Mugwagwa, and Jacques Trienekens. 2020. “Typology of Contract Farming Arrangements: A Transaction Cost Perspective.” Agrekon 59(2):169–87. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03031853.2020.1731561.

Blackmore, Emma, Alejandro Guarin, William Vorley, Silvia Alonso, and Delia Grace. 2022. “Kenya’s Informal Milk Markets and the Regulation–Reality Gap.” Development Policy Review 40(3):e12581.

Campbell, Zoë A., Nelly Njiru, Amos Lucky Mhone, Angela Makumi, Sylvain Moineau, and Nicholas Svitek. 2023. “Gender-Responsive Design of Bacteriophage Products to Enhance Adoption by Chicken Keepers in Kenya.” Viruses 15(3):746.

Carron, Maud, Pablo Alarcon, Maurice Karani, Patrick Muinde, James Akoko, Joshua Onono, Eric M. Fèvre, Barbara Häsler, and Jonathan Rushton. 2017. “The Broiler Meat System in Nairobi, Kenya: Using a Value Chain Framework to Understand Animal and Product Flows, Governance and Sanitary Risks.” Preventive Veterinary Medicine 147:90–99.

Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran, and Miranda J. Miranda. 2020. “Price Transmission in Pakistan’s Poultry Supply Chain.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 45(2):282–98.

Cotula, Lorenzo, Emma Blackmore, and Thierry Berger. 2021. “Contracts in Commercial Agriculture: Enhancing Rural Producer Agency.” International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), Https://Pubs. Iied. Org/12613iied.

Cuypers, Ilya R. P., Jean-François Hennart, Brian S. Silverman, and Gokhan Ertug. 2021. “Transaction Cost Theory: Past Progress, Current Challenges, and Suggestions for the Future.” Academy of Management Annals 15(1):111–50.

Dang, Huy Duc, Au Hai Thi Dam, Thuyen Thi Pham, and Tra My Thi Nguyen. 2020. “Determinants of Credit Demand of Farmers in Lam Dong, Vietnam: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit.” Agricultural Finance Review 80(2):255–74. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-06-2019-0061.

Dapilah, Frederick. 2023. “Contract Farming and Smallholder Farmers’ Resilience to Climate Change and Variability in Northern Ghana.” Regional Environmental Change 23(4). doi: 10.1007/s10113-023-02151-x.

Davis, Kristin E., Suresh Chandra Babu, and Catherine Ragasa. 2020. Agricultural Extension: Global Status and Performance in Selected Countries. Intl Food Policy Res Inst.

Debela, Bethelhem Legesse, Anette Ruml, and Matin Qaim. 2022. “Effects of Contract Farming on Diets and Nutrition in Ghana.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 44(2):911–29. doi: 10.1002/AEPP.13204.

Dedehouanou, SFA ,. J. Swinnen. 2013. “Does Contracting Make Farmers Happy? Evidence from S Enegal.” Wiley Online Library 59(SUPPL1). doi: 10.1111/roiw.12041.

Do, Jihwan, and Jeanine Miklós-Thal. 2021. “Opportunism in Vertical Contracting: A Dynamic Perspective.” Available at SSRN 3709550.

Dow, Jay K., and James W. Endersby. 2004. “Multinomial Probit and Multinomial Logit: A Comparison of Choice Models for Voting Research.” Electoral Studies 23(1):107–22.

Eissler, Sarah, Armande Sanou, Jessica Heckert, Emily Myers, Safiatou Nignan, Elisabeth Thio, Lucienne Amélie Pitropia, Rasmané Ganaba, Abdoulaye Pedehombga, and Aulo Gelli. 2020. Gender Dynamics, Women’s Empowerment, and Diets: Qualitative Findings from an Impact Evaluation of a Nutrition-Sensitive Poultry Value Chain Intervention in Burkina Faso. Vol. 1913. Intl Food Policy Res Inst.

Evans, Mwiti Mathiu, Njiri Ndirangu Samuel, and Chege Mwangi Samuel. 2021. “Production of Indigenous Poultry among Smallholder Farmers in Tigania West Meru County, Kenya.” African Journal of Agricultural Research 17(5):705–13. doi: https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR2021.15465.

Fan, Shenggen, and Christopher Rue. 2020. “The Role of Smallholder Farms in a Changing World.” Pp. 13–28 in The role of smallholder farms in food and nutrition security. Springer, Cham.

Felkner, JS, H. Lee, S. Shaikh, and A. Kolata. 2022. “The Interrelated Impacts of Credit Access, Market Access and Forest Proximity on Livelihood Strategies in Cambodia.” Elsevier.

Fernando, W. Madushan, H. Niles Perera, R. M. Chandima Ratnayake, and Amila Thibbotuwawa. 2024. “Storm in a Teacup: Implications of Mobile Phone Literacy on Sustainable Smallholder Agri-Food Supply Chains in Developing Economies.” International Journal of Logistics Management. doi: 10.1108/IJLM-09-2023-0413/FULL/HTML.

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 2021. “The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021.” The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. doi: 10.4060/CB4474EN.

Foster, J., J. Greer, E. Thorbecke-Econometrica: journal of the econometric, and undefined 1984. 1984. “A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures.” JSTORJ Foster, J Greer, E ThorbeckeEconometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1984•JSTOR.

FSD Kenya. 2020. Money to the Grassroots: Rethinking Agricultural Finance Models.

Galiè, Alessandra, Nelly Njiru, Jessica Heckert, Emily Myers, and Silvia Alonso. 2022. “Gendered Barriers and Opportunities in Kenya’s Informal Dairy Sector: Enhancing Gender-Equity in Urban Markets.” Gender, Technology and Development 26(2):214–37.

García, Bruno. 2013. “Implementation of a Double-Hurdle Model.” Stata Journal 13(4):776–94. doi: 10.1177/1536867X1301300406.

Garsow, Ariel V, Erica G. Kim, Kathleen E. Colverson, Sanja Ilic, Catherine Kunyanga, Abdiaziz Bainah, and Barbara B. Kowalcyk. 2022. “A Review of the Roles of Men, Women, and Youth in Ensuring Food Safety in the Smallholder Poultry Value Chain in Kenya.” Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 6:1041472. doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.1041472.

Gelata, Fikiru Temesgen, and Jiqin Han. 2024. “Rural Credit Access and Contract Farming Nexus in Ethiopia: A Meta-Analysis.” Heliyon 10(1). doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e23154.

Gichuki, Castro N., Simon K. Gicheha, and Charles Wambu Kamau. 2020. “Do Food Certification Standards Guarantee Small-Sized Farming Enterprises Access to Better Markets? Effectiveness of Marketing Contracts in Kenya.” International Journal of Social Economics 47(4):445–59.

Giller, Ken E., Thomas Delaune, João Vasco Silva, Katrien Descheemaeker, Gerrie van de Ven, Antonius G. T. Schut, Mark van Wijk, James Hammond, Zvi Hochman, and Godfrey Taulya. 2021. “The Future of Farming: Who Will Produce Our Food?” Food Security 13(5):1073–99.

Glover, David. 1994. “Contract Farming and Commercialization of Agriculture in Developing Countries.”

Gneiting, Uwe, and Joanne Sonenshine. 2018. “A Living Income for Small-Scale Farmers: Tackling Unequal Risks and Market Power.”

Government of Kenya. 2023. “ASAL Counties .” Retrieved April 2, 2024 (https://www.asalrd.go.ke/).

Gramzow, Andreas, Peter J. Batt, Victor Afari-Sefa, Martin Petrick, and Ralph Roothaert. 2018. “Linking Smallholder Vegetable Producers to Markets-A Comparison of a Vegetable Producer Group and a Contract-Farming Arrangement in the Lushoto District of Tanzania.” Journal of Rural Studies 63:168–79.

Greiner, Clemens. 2017. “Pastoralism and Land‐tenure Change in Kenya: The Failure of Customary Institutions.” Development and Change 48(1):78–97.

Grzelak, Aleksander. 2022. “The Relationship between Income and Assets in Farms and Context of Sustainable Development.” PLoS ONE 17(3 March). doi: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0265128.

Hafez, Hafez M., and Youssef A. Attia. 2020. “Challenges to the Poultry Industry: Current Perspectives and Strategic Future after the COVID-19 Outbreak.” Frontiers in Veterinary Science 7:516.

Haunshi, Santosh, U. Rajkumar, C. Paswan, L. L. L. Prince, and R. N. Chatterjee. 2021. “Inheritance of Growth Traits and Impact of Selection on Carcass and Egg Quality Traits in Vanashree, an Improved Indigenous Chicken.” Tropical Animal Health and Production 53(1):1–8.

Hemanth, M., S. Venugopal, C. Devaraj, C. G. Shashank, P. Ponnuvel, P. K. Mandal, and V. Sejian. 2024. “Comparative Assessment of Climate Resilient Potential in Four Poultry Genotypes Reared in Hot-Humid Tropical Environment: A Preliminary Evaluation. .” International Journal of Biometeorology, 1-13.

Hoang, Viet. 2021. “Impact of Contract Farming on Farmers’ Income in the Food Value Chain: A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Study in Vietnam.” Agriculture 11(8):797. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11080797.

Hussain, Javed, Samia Mahmood, and Jonathan Scott. 2019. “Gender, Microcredit and Poverty Alleviation in a Developing Country: The Case of Women Entrepreneurs in Pakistan.” Journal of International Development 31(3):247–70.

Ingutia, R., and J. & Sumelius. 2022. “Do Farmer Groups Improve the Situation of Women in Agriculture in Rural Kenya?” International Food and Agribusiness Management Review.

Jagri Binpori, Reuben, Dadson Awunyo-Vitor, and Camillus Abawiera Wongnaa. 2021. “Does Contract Farming Improve Rice Farmers’ Food Security? Empirical Evidence from Ghana.” World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development 18(2):130–49.

Jos Bijman. 2008. “Contract Farming in Developing Countries: An Overview.” Core.Ac.Uk.

Joseph Stiglitz. 2000. “Formal and Informal Institutions.” Books.Google.Com.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). 2024. National Agriculture Production Report- 2024.

Ketokivi, Mikko, and Joseph T. Mahoney. 2020. “Transaction Cost Economics as a Theory of Supply Chain Efficiency.” Production and Operations Management 29(4):1011–31.

Khan, Muhammad Fawad, Yuko Nakano, and Takashi Kurosaki. 2019. “Impact of Contract Farming on Land Productivity and Income of Maize and Potato Growers in Pakistan.” Food Policy 85:28–39. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.04.004.

Kimiti, Kennedy Sakimba, David Western, Judith Syombua Mbau, and Oliver Vivian Wasonga. 2018. “Impacts of Long-Term Land-Use Changes on Herd Size and Mobility among Pastoral Households in Amboseli Ecosystem, Kenya.” Ecological Processes 7(1):1–9.

Kiprop, Emmanuel Kiprotich, Cedric Okinda, Asma Akter, and Xianhui Geng. 2020. “Factors Influencing Marketing Channel Choices for Improved Indigenous Chicken Farmers: Insights from Baringo, Kenya.” British Food Journal.

Kiprop, Emmanuel, Cedric Okinda, Samuel Wamuyu, and Xianhui Geng. 2019. “Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers Participation in Collective Marketing and the Extent of Participation in Improved Indigenous Chicken Markets in Baringo, Kenya.” Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology 1–12.

Kleineberg, Christoph, and Christoph Kleineberg. 2019. “Theoretical Discussion of Vertical Integration and Regulation.” Vertical Integration and Regulation: An Analysis of Vertical Unbundling from a Competition Law and Competition Economics Perspective 7–40.

KNBS. 2023. 2023 Economic Survey.

Koome, Dennis K. 2017. “Factors Influencing Marketing Of Agricultural Produce Among Small-Scale Farmers, A Case Of Sorhgum In Giaki Location, Meru County Kenya.”

Krell, N. T., S. A. Giroux, Z. Guido, C. Hannah, S. E. Lopus, K. K. Caylor, and T. P. Evans. 2021a. “Smallholder Farmers’ Use of Mobile Phone Services in Central Kenya.” Climate and Development 13(3):215–27. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1748847.

Krell, N. T., S. A. Giroux, Z. Guido, C. Hannah, S. E. Lopus, K. K. Caylor, and T. P. Evans. 2021b. “Smallholder Farmers’ Use of Mobile Phone Services in Central Kenya.” Climate and Development 13(3):215–27. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1748847.

Krysiak, Katarzyna, Damian Konkol, and Mariusz Korczyński. 2021. “Overview of the Use of Probiotics in Poultry Production.” Animals 11(6):1620.

Kumari, Sneha, Nisha Bharti, and K. K. Tripathy. 2021. “Strengthening Agriculture Value Chain through Collectives: Comparative Case Analysis.” International Journal of Rural Management 17(1_suppl):40S-68S.

Lee, Lung-Fei. 1982. “Some Approaches to the Correction of Selectivity Bias.” The Review of Economic Studies 49(3):355–72.

Lewis, M., K. Bromley, C. J. Sutton, G. Mccray, H. L. Myers, and G. A. Lancaster. 2021. “Determining Sample Size for Progression Criteria for Pragmatic Pilot RCTs: The Hypothesis Test Strikes Back!” Springer 7(1). doi: 10.1186/s40814-021-00770-x.

Liao, Hua, Tianqi Chen, Xin Tang, and Jingwen Wu. 2019. “Fuel Choices for Cooking in China: Analysis Based on Multinomial Logit Model.” Journal of Cleaner Production 225:104–11. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.302.

Liu, Y., M. Chen, J. Yu, & X. Wang-Journal of Economic Behavior, and undefined 2024. 2024. “Being a Happy Farmer: Technology Adoption and Subjective Well-Being.” Elsevier 221:385–405. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.03.028.

Lockett, Andy, Steve Thompson, and Uta Morgenstern. 2009. “The Development of the Resource-Based View of the Firm: A Critical Appraisal.” International Journal of Management Reviews 11(1):9–28. doi: 10.1111/J.1468-2370.2008.00252.X.

Lokshin, Michael, and Zurab Sajaia. 2004. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Endogenous Switching Regression Models.” The Stata Journal 4(3):282–89.

Loquias, Melissa P., Larry N. Digal, Shemaiah Gail Placencia, Ivi Jaquelyn T. Astronomo, Marvin Louie G. Orbeta, and Carol Q. Balgos. 2022. “Factors Affecting Participation in Contract Farming of Smallholder Cavendish Banana Farmers in the Philippines.” Agricultural Research 1–9. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-021-00544-0.

Mabuza, Majola L., Gerald Ortmann, and Edilegnaw Wale. 2014. “Effects of Transaction Costs on Mushroom Producers’ Choice of Marketing Channels: Implications for Access to Agricultural Markets in Swaziland.” South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences 17(2):1–13.

Mango, Nelson, Clifton Makate, Mark Lundy, Shephard Siziba, Kefasi Nyikahadzoi, and A. O. Fatunbi. 2017. “Collective Market Participation for Improved Income among Smallholder Farming Households: A Case of Balaka Innovation Platform in Malawi.” African Crop Science Journal 25(1):97–108.

Ma, W., H. Qiu, DB Rahut-Review of Development Economics, and undefined 2023. 2022. “Rural Development in the Digital Age: Does Information and Communication Technology Adoption Contribute to Credit Access and Income Growth in Rural China?” Wiley Online Library 27(3):1421–44. doi: 10.1111/rode.12943.

Meemken, Eva-Marie. 2020. “Do Smallholder Farmers Benefit from Sustainability Standards? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” Global Food Security 26:100373. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100373.

Meemken, Eva-Marie, Christopher B. Barrett, Hope C. Michelson, Matin Qaim, Thomas Reardon, and Jorge Sellare. 2021. “Sustainability Standards in Global Agrifood Supply Chains.” Nature Food 2(10):758–65. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00360-3.

Meemken, Eva-Marie, and Marc F. Bellemare. 2020. “Smallholder Farmers and Contract Farming in Developing Countries.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117(1):259–64. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1909501116.

Mehla, Preeti, and Rajiv Kumar. 2023. “Income Perspective of Contract Farming Across Globe: A Bibliometric Review.” Journal of Operations and Strategic Planning 2516600X231178376.

Meister, Simon. 2020. “Contract Farming and Multidimensional Poverty.”

Michelson, Hope C. 2013. “Small Farmers, NGOs, and a Walmart World: Welfare Effects of Supermarkets Operating in Nicaragua.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95(3):628–49.

Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Irrigation. 2019. AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TRANSFORMATION and GROWTH STRATEGY.

Mishra, Ashok K., Anjani Kumar, Pramod K. Joshi, and Alwin D’souza. 2018. “Production Risks, Risk Preference and Contract Farming: Impact on Food Security in India.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 40(3):353–78. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppy017.

Miyata, S., N. Minot, and D. Hu. 2009. “Impact of Contract Farming on Income: Linking Small Farmers, Packers, and Supermarkets in China. .” World Development 37(11), 1781-1790.

Mottet, Anne, Benjamin Henderson, Carolyn Opio, Alessandra Falcucci, Giuseppe Tempio, Silvia Silvestri, Sabrina Chesterman, and Pierre J. Gerber. 2017. “Climate Change Mitigation and Productivity Gains in Livestock Supply Chains: Insights from Regional Case Studies.” Regional Environmental Change 17(1):129–41.

Mulatu, Gemechu, Jema Haji, Belaineh Legesse, and Mengistu Ketema. 2017. “Impact of Participation in Vegetables’ Contract Farming on Household’s Income in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.” American Journal of Rural Development 5(4):90–96.

Mwambi, Mercy Maiwa, Judith Oduol, Patience Mshenga, and Mwanarusi Saidi. 2016. “Does Contract Farming Improve Smallholder Income? The Case of Avocado Farmers in Kenya.” Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 6(1):2–20.

Mwololo, Henry Muli, Jonathan Makau Nzuma, Cecilia Nyawira Ritho, Sylvester Ochieng Ogutu, and Nassul Kabunga. 2020. “Determinants of Actual and Potential Adoption of Improved Indigenous Chicken under Asymmetrical Exposure Conditions in Rural Kenya.” African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development 12(4):505–15.

Ncube, Douglas. 2020. “The Importance of Contract Farming to Small-Scale Farmers in Africa and the Implications for Policy: A Review Scenario.” The Open Agriculture Journal 14(1). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874331502014010059.

Ndiritu, S. Wagura. 2021. “Drought Responses and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change by Pastoralists in the Semi-Arid Area, Laikipia County, Kenya.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 26:1–18.

Neme, AA, TL Tefera, BB Abdi, CS Aweke-Discover Agriculture, and undefined 2024. 2024. “The Impact of Contract Farming on Income of Smallholder Vegetables Farmers in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.” Springer 2(1):2657–64. doi: 10.1007/S44279-024-00024-3.

Njuki, Jemimah, Sarah Eissler, Hazel Jean Malapit, Ruth S. Meinzen-Dick, Elizabeth Bryan, and Agnes R. Quisumbing. 2021. “A Review of Evidence on Gender Equality, Women’s Empowerment, and Food Systems.” SSRN Electronic Journal. doi: 10.2139/SSRN.3886544.

Noble, Helen, and Joanna Smith. 2015. “Issues of Validity and Reliability in Qualitative Research.” Evidence-Based Nursing 18(2):34–35.

Nyoni, N. M. B., S. Grab, and Emma R. M. Archer. 2019. “Heat Stress and Chickens: Climate Risk Effects on Rural Poultry Farming in Low-Income Countries.” Climate and Development 11(1):83–90.

Ochieng, Dennis O., Prakashan C. Veettil, and Matin Qaim. 2017. “Farmers’ Preferences for Supermarket Contracts in Kenya.” Food Policy 68:100–111. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.01.008.

Olounlade, Odountan Ambaliou, Gu-Cheng Li, Sènakpon E. Haroll Kokoye, François Vihôdé Dossouhoui, Kuassi Auxence Aristide Akpa, Dessalegn Anshiso, and Gauthier Biaou. 2020. “Impact of Participation in Contract Farming on Smallholder Farmers’ Income and Food Security in Rural Benin: PSM and LATE Parameter Combined.” Sustainability 12(3):901. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030901.

Omondi, Samuel Onyango. 2022. “Poultry Value Chain in Two Medium-Sized Cities in Kenya; Insights from Cluster Theory.” Frontiers in Veterinary Science 249.

Omondi, S. O. 2022. “Poultry Value Chain in Two Medium-Sized Cities in Kenya; Insights from Cluster Theory. .” Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 9, 601299.

Opěla, Petr, Ivo Schindler, Petr Kawulok, Rostislav Kawulok, Stanislav Rusz, and Horymir Navratil. 2021. “On Various Multi-Layer Perceptron and Radial Basis Function Based Artificial Neural Networks in the Process of a Hot Flow Curve Description.” Journal of Materials Research and Technology 14:1837–47. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmrt.2021.07.100.

Otiang, Elkanah, Samuel M. Thumbi, Zoë A. Campbell, Lucy W. Njagi, Philip N. Nyaga, and Guy H. Palmer. 2021. “Impact of Routine Newcastle Disease Vaccination on Chicken Flock Size in Smallholder Farms in Western Kenya.” Plos One 16(3):e0248596.

Oya, Carlos. 2012. “Contract Farming in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Approaches, Debates and Issues.” Journal of Agrarian Change 12(1):1–33. doi: 10.1111/J.1471-0366.2011.00337.X.

Palouj, Mojtaba, Rasool Lavaei Adaryani, Amir Alambeigi, Maryam Movarej, and Yahya Safi Sis. 2021. “Surveying the Impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the Poultry Supply Chain: A Mixed Methods Study.” Food Control 126:108084.

Phil Simmons, Paul Winters, Ian Patrick. 2005. “Evaluation of a Hybrid Seed Contract between Smallholders and a Multinational Company in East Java, Indonesia.” Taylor & Francis.

Pingali, Prabhu, Anaka Aiyar, Mathew Abraham, Andaleeb Rahman, Prabhu Pingali, Anaka Aiyar, Mathew Abraham, and Andaleeb Rahman. 2019. “Linking Farms to Markets: Reducing Transaction Costs and Enhancing Bargaining Power.” Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India 193–214. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14409-8_8.

Pius, Lenox Omondi, Péter Strausz, and Szilvia Kusza. 2021. “Overview of Poultry Management as a Key Factor for Solving Food and Nutritional Security with a Special Focus on Chicken Breeding in East African Countries.” Biology 10(8):810.

Poku, Adu-Gyamfi, Regina Birner, and Saurabh Gupta. 2018. “Making Contract Farming Arrangements Work in Africa’s Bioeconomy: Evidence from Cassava Outgrower Schemes in Ghana.” Sustainability 10(5):1604.

Prasad, J. V. N. S., N. Akila, C. S. Bharathi, S. Alagudurai, C. R. Rao, B. M. K. Raju, and A. K. Singh. 2023. “Assessment of Adaptation Practices for Risk Minimization to Drought in Semi-Arid Environments.” Climate Risk Management, 42, 100563.

Rabbi, Fazli, Riaz Ahamad, Sajjad Ali, Abbas Ali Chandio, Waqar Ahmad, Aasir Ilyas, and Izhar Ud Din. 2019. “Determinants of Commercialization and Its Impact on the Welfare of Smallholder Rice Farmers by Using Heckman’s Two-Stage Approach.” Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences 18(2):224–33.

Ragasa, Catherine, Isabel Lambrecht, and Doreen S. Kufoalor. 2018. “Limitations of Contract Farming as a Pro-Poor Strategy: The Case of Maize Outgrower Schemes in Upper West Ghana.” World Development 102:30–56. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.09.008.

Rajkhowa, Pallavi, and Matin Qaim. 2022. “Mobile Phones, off-Farm Employment and Household Income in Rural India.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 73(3):789–805. doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12480.

Rao, and Martin Qaim. 2011. “Supermarkets, Farm Household Income, and Poverty: Insights from Kenya.” ElsevierEJO Rao, M QaimWorld Development, 2011•Elsevier.

Reardon, Thomas, Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie, and Bart Minten. 2021. “Quiet Revolution by SMEs in the Midstream of Value Chains in Developing Regions: Wholesale Markets, Wholesalers, Logistics, and Processing.” Food Security 13:1577–94.

Riccaboni, Angelo, Elena Neri, Francesca Trovarelli, and Riccardo Maria Pulselli. 2021. “Sustainability-Oriented Research and Innovation in ‘Farm to Fork’Value Chains.” Current Opinion in Food Science 42:102–12.

Ritter, Gaelen, Lina P. Walkinshaw, Emilee L. Quinn, Scott Ickes, and Donna B. Johnson. 2019. “An Assessment of Perceived Barriers to Farmers’ Market Access.” Journal of Nutrition Education and Behavior 51(1):48–56.

Rogan, Michael. 2016. “Gender and Multidimensional Poverty in South Africa: Applying the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI).” Social Indicators Research 126(3):987–1006. doi: 10.1007/S11205-015-0937-2/FIGURES/4.

Rondhi, M, J. M. M. Aji, A. F. Hasan, and R. Yanuarti. 2020. “Factors Affecting Farmers’ Participation in Contract Farming: The Case of Broiler Sector in Indonesia.” Tropical Animal Science Journal 43(2):183–90.

Rondhi, Mohammad, Joni Murti Mulyo Aji, Ahmad Fatikhul Khasan, Adinda Tissa Rachmasari Putri, and Rizky Yanuarti. 2020. “Risk Aversion, Risk Preference and Farmers’ Decision to Participate in Broiler Contract Farming: A Case Study in Jember, Indonesia.” Caraka Tani: Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 35(1):98.

Roop, R., M. Weaver, AP Fonseca, M. Matouq-SDGs in the Americas and, and undefined 2023. 2023. “Innovative Approaches in Smallholder Farming Systems to Implement the Sustainable Development Goals.” SpringerR Roop, M Weaver, AP Fonseca, M MatouqSDGs in the Americas and Caribbean Region, 2023•Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-16017-2_70.

Rosenbaum, Paul R., and Donald B. Rubin. 1985. “The Bias Due to Incomplete Matching.” Biometrics 103–16.

Ruml, Anette, and Martin C. Parlasca. 2022. “In‐kind Credit Provision through Contract Farming and Formal Credit Markets.” Agribusiness 38(2):402–25. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21726.

Ruml, Anette, and Matin Qaim. 2021a. “New Evidence Regarding the Effects of Contract Farming on Agricultural Labor Use.” Agricultural Economics 52(1):51–66.

Ruml, Anette, and Matin Qaim. 2021b. “Smallholder Farmers’ Dissatisfaction with Contract Schemes in Spite of Economic Benefits: Issues of Mistrust and Lack of Transparency.” The Journal of Development Studies 57(7):1106–19. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2020.1850699.

Sachs, Carolyn E. 2018. Gendered Fields: Rural Women, Agriculture, and Environment. Routledge.

Saljoughi, Bashir Shokouh, and Ardesir Hezarkhani. 2018. “A Comparative Analysis of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Wavelet Neural Network (WNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) Data-Driven Models to Mineral Potential Mapping for Copper Mineralizations in the Shahr-e-Babak Region, Kerman, Iran.” Applied Geomatics 10:229–56. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12518-018-0229-z.

Sattler, Claudia, Rena Barghusen, Birte Bredemeier, Céline Dutilly, and Katrin Prager. 2023. “Institutional Analysis of Actors Involved in the Governance of Innovative Contracts for Agri-Environmental and Climate Schemes.” Global Environmental Change 80:102668.

Sifundza, Sandile Bongani. 2019. Contract Farming and Access to Formal Credit in South Africa: A Case of Small-Scale Sugarcane Growers in the Felixton Mill Area of KwaZulu-Natal.

Silong, Asenath Kotugan Fada, and Yiorgos Gadanakis. 2020. “Credit Sources, Access and Factors Influencing Credit Demand among Rural Livestock Farmers in Nigeria.” Agricultural Finance Review 80(1):68–90. doi: 10.1108/AFR-10-2018-0090/FULL/HTML.

Sime, Abera Geleta. 2022. “Review on Poultry Production, Processing, and Utilization in Ethiopia.” International Journal of Agricultural Science and Food Technology 8(2):147–52.

Singh, Archana, and Shweta Thakur. 2021. “Contract Farming: Opportunities & Challenges.” Elementary Education Online 20(1):1947.

Singh, P. K., and H. Chudasama. 2021. “Pathways for Climate Change Adaptations in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 284, 124744.

Snel, Herman, Jan Broeze, Florine Kremer, Emily Osena, Julie Muyela, John Erick, Emmanuel Wanjuu, and Amber van Spronsen. 2021. A Food System Analysis of Kenya’s Mango, Avocado and Poultry Sectors: Assessing Opportunities to Reduce Food Losses. Wageningen Centre for Development Innovation.

Snel, H. J., Jan Broeze, F. S. Kremer, and Emily Osena. 2021. “Opportunities to Reduce Losses in the Kenyan Poultry Sector through Agroprocessing and Agrologists.”

Sripakdeevong, Parit, and Robert M. Townsend. 2022. “The Village Money Market Revealed: Financial Access and Credit Chain Links Between Formal and Informal Sectors.” Annual Review of Financial Economics 14:1–20. doi: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-034126.

Statista. 2019. “Projected Poultry Meat Consumption Worldwide from 2015 to 2027 (in Metric Kiloton).” Retrieved (https://www.statista.com/statistics/739951/poultry-meat-consumption-worldwide/).

Statista. 2023. Credit to Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing as a Share of Total Credit in Kenya from 2010 to 2019.

Stats Kenya. 2024. “Overall Poverty Rates in Kenya by County.” Retrieved April 28, 2025 (https://statskenya.co.ke/at-stats-kenya/about/overall-poverty-rates-in-kenya-by-county/62/).

Sumuni, Catholic. 2020. “Poultry Meat Supply Chain in East Africa: Literature Review and a Proposed Framework for Future Research.” Development 12(18).

Swinnen, Johan, and Rob Kuijpers. 2019. “Value Chain Innovations for Technology Transfer in Developing and Emerging Economies: Conceptual Issues, Typology, and Policy Implications.” Food Policy 83:298–309.

Takahashi, Kazushi, Rie Muraoka, and Keijiro Otsuka. 2020. “Technology Adoption, Impact, and Extension in Developing Countries’ Agriculture: A Review of the Recent Literature.” Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom) 51(1). doi: 10.1111/agec.12539.

Thomas, Lijo, and B. Nirmala. 2011. “Extension Services in Contract Farming: An Explorative Study of Potential Parameters.” Journal of Rural Development 30(2).

Ton, Giel, Wytse Vellema, Sam Desiere, Sophia Weituschat, and Marijke D’Haese. 2018. “Contract Farming for Improving Smallholder Incomes: What Can We Learn from Effectiveness Studies?” World Development 104:46–64. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.015.

Tsikata, D., and P. Eweh. 2021. “Does Formalisation Improve Women’s Work Conditions?: A Review of the Regulatory Regime for Contract Farming and Domestic Trade in Ghana. .” Informal Women Workers in the Global South.

United Nations. 2015. “Sustainable Development Goals .” Retrieved April 3, 2025 (https://sdgs.un.org/goals).

Vansteelandt, Stijn, James Carpenter, and Michael G. Kenward. 2010. “Analysis of Incomplete Data Using Inverse Probability Weighting and Doubly Robust Estimators.” Methodology 6(1). doi: 10.1027/1614-2241/a000005.

Vicol, Mark, Niels Fold, Caroline Hambloch, Sudha Narayanan, and Helena Pérez Niño. 2022. “Twenty‐five Years of Living Under Contract: Contract Farming and Agrarian Change in the Developing World.” Journal of Agrarian Change 22(1):3–18. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/joac.12471.

Wambua, S., I. Macharia, and G. Mwenjeri. 2022. “Challenges and Opportunities in Improved Indigenous Chicken Production in Kenya.” East African Agricultural and Forestry Journal 86(3 & 4):10.

White, Ben, and Hanny Wijaya. 2022. “What Kind of Labour Regime Is Contract Farming? Contracting and Sharecropping in Java Compared.” Journal of Agrarian Change 22(1):19–35. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/joac.12459.

Whitnall, Tim, and Nathan Pitts. 2019. “Global Trends in Meat Consumption.” Agricultural Commodities 9(1):96–99.

World Bank. 2022. “Fact Sheet: An Adjustment to Global Poverty Lines.” World Bank. Retrieved April 3, 2025 (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2022/05/02/fact-sheet-an-adjustment-to-global-poverty-lines).

World Bank. 2023a. “Measuring Poverty.”

World Bank. 2023b. “Poverty.” Retrieved April 3, 2025 (https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview#:~:text=8.5%20percent%20of%20the%20global%20population%20%E2%80%93%20almost,Sub-Saharan%20Africa%20or%20in%20fragile%20and%20conflict-affected%20countries.).

Yamane, Taro. 1967. Statistics: An Introductory Analysis.

Yiming Zhang, Rui Yang, Kai Zhao, and Xiangzhi Kong. 2023. “Fertilizer Application in Contract Farming: A Risk Analysis.” Land.

Zhang, C. 2024. “Enhancing Agricultural Credit Guarantees in China’s Agricultural Value Chain Through Relationship Contracts: A Study on Risk Prevention Mechanisms.” Journal of the Knowledge Economy.

Zhang, Longyao, Wenli Cheng, Enjiang Cheng, and Bi Wu. 2020. “Does Land Titling Improve Credit Access? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Rural China.” Applied Economics 52(2):227–41.