区域粮食供需平衡是确保国家粮食安全的基本前提，充裕的粮食供给也是构建和谐社会的重要物质基础。粮食供给在时间和空间上的分布均衡与否是影响粮食安全问题的重要因素。深入探讨粮食生产空间格局变化规律，对于新时期制定合理的粮食生产、贸易、流通政策及粮食加工业布局与生产决策，确保区域粮食供需平衡具有重要意义。本研究以我国东部沿海地区经济高速发展且区域差异显著的江苏省为例，集成应用区域差异分析方法、GIS、空间重心及空间自相关统计分析方法、面板数据模型深入探讨了该区域1980年以来的粮食生产空间格局变化特征、影响因素、驱动机制，并在科学审视这一空间格局变化后，提出了初步的优化策略。主要结论如下： （1）粮食问题有自己的独特内涵：粮食生产与消费的特殊性在于生产区域分散、消费区域集中，产出时间集中、消费时间不断，生产环节隐蔽、食用问题彰显，问题关乎生死、影响因素众多；粮食问题的综合性在于粮食供需与生态、经济、政治相交织，且关联性日益紧密。粮食生产空间格局变化是影响粮食生产波动、调运流通、供给安全的重要因素。这是我们讨论区域粮食安全问题的重要基础。 （2）江苏省粮食生产空间格局变化的总体特征：1995年后是空间格局变化的重点时期；全省粮食生产重心北移，粮食生产与人口聚集、经济活动的空间变化相背离；人均粮食的高高聚集、低低聚集态势增强，主要体现在苏南地区粮食生产萎缩，成为人均粮食低低聚集区，而长江以北地区粮食生产水平大幅提高，尤其是苏北地区成为全省最重要的粮食产区。 （3）影响江苏省粮食生产空间格局变化的最直接因素是在耕地面积、复种指数和粮食生产积极性的影响下，粮食播种面积的空间非均衡变化。城镇化、工业化乃重要的间接驱动因素，农业结构调整政策和粮食生产支持政策对此也有着显著的引导作用。江苏省粮食生产空间格局变化的驱动机制是：城镇化、工业化一方面造成大量耕地非农占用，另一方面影响了农户的农业和粮食生产积极性，加之相关政策的引导，最终导致农户的农地利用方式转变。在土地和劳动力等资源的比较优势利用基础上形成的社会经济发展综合驱动力对粮食生产空间格局的影响日益深远。 （4）江苏省粮食生产空间格局变化是农户决策的结果，自有其合理性。但是，也降低了全省粮食生产的稳定性，加剧了苏南地区粮食供给的市场风险，并影响了该地区稻田生态系统服务功能的发挥，增大了生态风险。为保障江苏省区域粮食安全，可行的粮食生产布局优化策略是：苏南主产区以水稻生产为中心，立足口粮产需平衡，稳定和提高粮食生产能力、巩固与拓展省内粮食对口产销协作关系、广泛开展国内外粮食贸易、完善粮食储备体系、建立和完善粮食安全预警系统；对于粮食主产区的长江以北而言，应当稳定和提高粮食生产能力、大力发展粮食产业化、增强粮食储运能力与效率，实现增产增收。 （5）以“变化特征—影响因素—驱动机制—科学审视—优化策略”为研究主线，是粮食生产空间格局变化研究的新视角。GIS技术与空间重心统计、空间自相关统计分析方法的结合，为粮食生产空间格局变化研究提供了可视化空间信息。面板数据模型是探讨粮食生产空间格局变化的影响因素与驱动机制的适宜方法。

Regional grain supply-demand balance is an important premise for national food security. Unstinted grain supply is a key strategic material of constructing harmonious society. Whether the grain supply is balance in time and space or not is an important factor affecting the grain safety. Making a further discussion on change low of spatial pattern of grain production is significant to make grain production, trade and circulation policy, and optimize the layout of grain processing industry. Taking Jiangsu a typical developed provinces located in east-coast of China as an example, based on regional difference analysis method, GIS, centrographic statistic, spatial attocorrelation statistic and panel data model, this paper have made a further discussion on variation characteristics，influence factors, driving mechanism. Further more, based on a scientific review of this spatial pattern change, preliminary optimizing strategies have been put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Grain problem has its unique connotations. Grain supply and consumption interweave with ecologic environment, economic development, and politics. The spatial pattern of grain production is an important influence factor on grain yield fluctuation, grain allocation and transportation, also supply security. These are key theoretical basis of our discussion on regional grain security. (2) The overall characteristics of the spatial pattern change of grain production in Jiangsu Province are: spatial pattern of grain production in Jiangsu Province has change a lot since 1995;the mean center of grain production has transferred to north, and the spatial change of grain production is inconsistent with population gathering and economic activities; grain production in south Jiangsu became atrophic and this region comes to be low-low aggregation area, however, the grain production in north of Yangtze river area has been greatly improved, especially the north Jiangsu, which becomes the most important grain production area. (3) The direct influence factor of spatial pattern change of grain production in Jiangsu is the unbalanced spatial change of grain planting area. Urbanization and industrialization are significance indirect driving factors; moreover, the adjustment policy of agricultural structure and the supporting policy of grain production have obvious guiding function to the spatial pattern change. The driving mechanism is urbanization and industrialization on the one hand have caused massive cultivated land occupied for non-agricultural use, and on the other hand have influenced the farmers’ agricultural and grain production enthusiasms, together with the policy guidance, finally caused the agricultural land use change. The integrated driving force of social economy growth, based upon the comparatively advantage of land and labor force, has been playing a more and more significant influence on spatial pattern of grain production. (4) The spatial pattern change of grain production in Jiangsu Province is the rational decision-making results of farmers, it is reasonable to a certain extent, however has brought up adverse affect to the stability of grain production, the supply-demand balance of grain production and environmental health in south Jiangsu. To ensure the grain security in Jiangsu Province, the south region of Jiangsu should center around rice production and stand on the production-consumption balance of ration, stabilize and improve the ability of grain production, consolidate and expand the regional cooperation between production and sale, widely develop provincial grain trade, perfect the grain reserves system, set up and perfect food security warning and emergency system. For the region of north Yangtze River, as main grain production area, they should stabilize and improve the ability of grain production, greatly develop the grain industrialization, improve the ability and efficiency of grain storage and transportation. (5) It is a scientific reproach to the exploration of spatial pattern change of grain production, based on the analysis of variation characteristics, influencing factors, driving mechanism, scientific review and optimizing strategy. The combining of GIS, spatial mean center statistics and spatial autocorrelation statistics, has provided us with visualized spatial information of spatial pattern change of grain production. Panel data model is a roper method for investigating the influencing factor and driving mechanism of spatial pattern change of grain production.