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中文题名:

 基于无人机的小麦长势与物候均匀度监测及产量预测研究     

姓名:

 杨艳东    

学号:

 2020201091    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 0901Z1    

学科名称:

 农学 - 作物学 - 农业信息学    

学生类型:

 博士    

学位:

 农学博士    

学校:

 南京农业大学    

院系:

 农学院    

专业:

 农业信息学    

研究方向:

 作物表型监测    

第一导师姓名:

 二宫正士    

第一导师单位:

 南京农业大学    

完成日期:

 2025-04-14    

答辩日期:

 2025-05-27    

外文题名:

 Research on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle-Based Monitoring of Wheat Growth and Phenological Uniformity and Yield prediction    

中文关键词:

 无人机高光谱图像 ; 深度学习 ; 长势均匀度 ; 物候均匀度 ; 产量预测    

外文关键词:

 UAV Hyperspectral imagery ; Deep learning ; Growth uniformity ; Phenological uniformity ; Yield prediction    

中文摘要:

智慧农业的发展日益依赖遥感技术与数据智能处理手段,实现对农田中作物长势、物候、产量和生物量的高效监测与智能预测,成为推动粮食安全与智慧农业的关键路径。在大田及多品种育种试验中,作物的长势和物候进程存在一定的差异,导致田间作物生长状态存在一定的空间异质性,这会造成遥感数据中光谱特征的混杂效应,限制了模型的稳定性和预测精度。因此,如何定量监测作物群体长势和物候的均匀度特征,并探索其对建模性能的影响,是产量和生物量预测中要解决的重要问题。

本研究于2021-2023年在南京农业大学白马试验基地(江苏省溧水区,N 31°37′08″,E 119°10′28″)开展了为期两年的田间试验,试验涉及210个小麦栽培品种。研究围绕小麦群体的长势与物候进程的均匀度监测方法及产量和生物量预测展开。首先,本研究基于无人机图像提取农学参数用于计算小麦的长势均匀度指数,并评估了长势均匀度指数的有效性。然后,本研究使用高光谱数据构建了小麦物候期的识别模型,并评估了整个研究区域的物候均匀度(Phenological Uniformity, PU),物候均匀度指研究区域内小麦物候进程的一致性。最后,本研究分析了长势均匀度和物候均匀度对产量和生物量预测精度的影响。主要研究结果如下:

(1)小麦长势均匀度的定量监测及有效性评估

本研究提出了基于无人机图像的小麦长势均匀度定量评估方法。长势均匀度是指作物个体间生理、空间分布、形态结构等方面一致性。研究采用无人机在分蘖期、拔节期、抽穗期、开花期、灌浆早期、灌浆中期和灌浆后期采集小麦的高光谱和RGB图像,并从无人机图像中提取了时间序列的植被覆盖度(Fractional vegetation cover, FVC)、叶面积指数(Leaf area index, LAI)、叶绿素相对含量(Soil and plant analyzer development, SPAD)和冠层高度(Canopy height, CH),用于表征小麦的空间分布、生理状态与形态结构。然后根据本研究提出的基于图像的均匀度评估方法分别计算了四个长势参数的均匀度指数(小区尺度):方差、变异系数、香农熵、Pielou指数和Alatalo指数,共20个均匀度指数。针对熵值类的均匀度指数难以适用于单一物种的问题,本研究引入分类参数以增强其在作物研究中的适用性。结果表明,当LAI的分类参数小于1,SPAD的分类参数小于20时,对应的熵类均匀度指数表现出较高的有效性;FVC仅有两个类别,分类参数设置为1;而CH相关的均匀度指数对分类参数不敏感。此外,均匀度指数的有效性对图像的空间分辨率较为敏感,空间分辨率为3cm时效果最好。分析各均匀度指数的动态变化趋势发现,除CH的均匀度指数外,从分蘖期至抽穗期均匀度快速升高,抽穗期至灌浆中期均匀度相对稳定,至灌浆后期再度下降。

进一步对20个均匀度指数进行有效性分析,结果表明开花期的LJ(从LAI提取的Pielou指数)与产量(r=–0.760)和生物量(r=–0.801)均具有最强的相关性,高于传统的平均值与产量(r=0.726)和生物量(r=0.754)的相关性。此外,基于产量与生物量对样本进行层次聚类分析,进一步利用LJ指数探讨了210个栽培品种间及年际间的长势均匀度差异。结果显示,小区群体内部的长势均匀度与产量和最终生物量之间具有显著正相关关系,说明均匀度不仅能够反映作物的长势状态,也对产量和生物量具有重要影响。

(2)小麦关键物候期及整个研究区域的物候均匀度的监测

提出了物候均匀度的概念,并定量评估了整个研究区域的物候均匀度。使用无人机在小麦孕穗期至灌浆早期高频率的采集高光谱图像,并在此期间每天下午人工调查所有小区的物候期。基于连续的田间物候调查结果,本研究发现整个试验区域的小麦PU呈波动变化趋势,大多数日期PU值在0.5至0.8之间,抽穗期和开花期的PU峰值约为0.8。随后,将小区的平均光谱作为输入,本研究比较了K近邻(K-nearest neighbors, KNN)、XGBoost(Extreme gradient boosting)、支持向量机(Support vector machine, SVM)、SF(SpectrumFormer)和EMS-GCN(End-to-end mixhop superpixel-based graph convolutional networks)模型对四个关键物候期的分类精度,其中,深度学习模型EMS-GCN的分类效果最好,总体分类精度为86.2%,Kappa系数为0.804,孕穗期、抽穗期、开花期和灌浆早期的分类精度分别为86.4%,84.7%,87.7%和87.4%。

基于EMS-GCN的分类结果,本研究将孕穗期光谱数据作为PLSR(Partial Least Squares Regression, PLSR)模型的输入,分别预测了小麦的抽穗日期(R²=0.883, RMSE=2.012 d, MAE=1.584 d)和开花日期(R²=0.923, RMSE=2.463 d, MAE=1.977 d),平均绝对误差均小于2天。本研究对预测的抽穗日期和开花日期进一步分析发现,抽穗和开花累计百分比达80%(PU=0.8)的日期与实测的日期相差在1-2天。此外,研究进一步探讨了不同PU数据集在开花期预测中的表现,发现预测精度与PU值呈正相关关系,即较高的PU能够有效提升预测精度。上述结果表明,物候均匀度不仅影响表型参数的遥感估算精度,而且本研究提出的物候期分类方法可有效预测PU的峰值日期,为选取最佳数据采集窗口提供了依据。

(3)基于均匀度的产量和生物量预测

本研究通过融合长势均匀度指数和高物候均匀度的高光谱特征,有效提升了产量和生物量预测的精度。本研究基于与产量和生物量相关性最高的四个均匀度指数:FE(从FVC提取的Alatalo指数)、LJ、SJ(从SPAD提取的Pielou指数)和CCV(从CH提取的变异系数)构建了多元线性回归(Multiple linear regression, MLR)模型,并以相应的四个农学参数的平均值构建对照模型进行比较。结果显示,均匀度指数构建的模型在预测精度上优于平均值模型:基于均匀度指数的模型预测精度为产量R²=0.592,RMSE=1.178 t/ha,CV=0.162,生物量R²=0.735,RMSE=2.325 t/ha,CV=0.137;而基于平均值的模型预测精度为产量R²=0.574,RMSE=1.290 t/ha,CV=0.178,生物量R²=0.701,RMSE=2.491 t/ha,CV=0.149。在PU方面,本研究进一步构建了具有不同PU水平的高光谱数据集,用于分析PU对产量和生物量预测精度的影响。结果表明,PU值与预测精度之间存在正相关关系。此外,本研究分析四个物候期的预测精度发现,开花期的预测精度最高。以开花期(PU=0.69)的数据集为例,PLSR模型预测精度为:产量R²=0.643,RMSE=1.248 t/ha,CV=0.175;生物量R²=0.806,RMSE=2.063 t/ha,CV=0.125。而在开花期PU=1的数据集上,预测精度明显提升:产量R²=0.692,RMSE=1.091 t/ha,CV=0.152;生物量R²=0.827,RMSE=1.873 t/ha,CV=0.113。在此基础上,本研究进一步将长势均匀度指数引入PU=1的高光谱数据中作为新增输入特征进行建模,发现模型预测精度进一步提升,增加长势均匀度指数后,产量预测精度为R²=0.708,RMSE=1.084 t/ha,CV=0.151,生物量预测精度为R²=0.847,RMSE=1.782 t/ha,CV=0.105。为了明确各输入特征的贡献,本研究采用RReliefF特征选择算法对高光谱反射率和长势均匀度指数进行重要性分析,结果显示,长势均匀度指数在多个模型中均具有较高的特征权重,表明其在预测模型中发挥了积极作用。综上所述,长势均匀度指数和物候均匀度在提升小麦产量和生物量预测精度方面具有明显的效果,其在高精度农业遥感建模中的应用潜力值得进一步关注和推广。

本研究构建了小麦长势均匀度和物候均匀度的定量监测方法,系统评估了其在产量和生物量遥感预测中的应用价值。结果表明,均匀度明显提升了产量与生物量预测精度,并可用于优化遥感数据采集时机。该方法具备良好的适应性和推广价值,为作物群体监测和精准农业管理提供了新的技术路径和理论支持。

外文摘要:

The development of smart agriculture increasingly relies on remote sensing technologies and intelligent data processing methods. Efficient monitoring and intelligent prediction of crop growth status, phenology, yield, and biomass have become key pathways to enhancing food security and advancing smart agricultural practices. In open-field and multi-cultivars breeding trials, crops often exhibit variations in growth and phenological processes, resulting in spatial heterogeneity across the field. This spatial variability introduces mixed spectral effects in remote sensing data, thereby limiting model stability and predictive accuracy. Therefore, quantitatively monitoring the uniformity of crop growth and phenological development, and investigating its impact on modeling performance, is a critical issue in yield and biomass prediction.

From 2021 to 2023, a two-year field experiment was conducted at the Baima Experimental Station of Nanjing Agricultural University (Lishui District, Jiangsu Province, N 31°37′08″, E 119°10′28″), involving 210 wheat cultivars. This study focused on the monitoring of growth and phenological uniformity within wheat populations and their implications for yield and biomass prediction. Firstly, agronomic parameters were extracted from UAV imagery to calculate the wheat growth uniformity indices, and the effectiveness of these indices were evaluated. Secondly, hyperspectral data were used to identify phenological stages of wheat, and the phenological uniformity (PU) across the study area was evaluated. PU refers to the consistency of phenological progression within the research region. Finally, the effects of both growth uniformity and PU on the accuracy of yield and biomass prediction were investigated. The main findings are as follows:

(1) Quantitative Monitoring and Evaluation of Wheat Growth Uniformity

A quantitative assessment method for wheat growth uniformity was developed based on UAV imagery.UAV-based hyperspectral and RGB imagery were collected during key wheat growth stages: tillering, jointing, heading, flowering, early filling, mid-filling, and late filling stage. Four agronomic parameters—fractional vegetation cover (FVC), leaf area index (LAI), soil and plant analyzer development (SPAD), and canopy height (CH)—were extracted to characterize spatial distribution, physiological status, and morphological structure. Based on a proposed image-based uniformity assessment method, five uniformity indices (variance, coefficient of variation, Shannon entropy, Pielou’s index, and Alatalo’s index) were calculated at the plot scale for each parameter, yielding a total of 20 uniformity indices. To address limitations of entropy-based indices for single-species analysis, a classification parameter was introduced to enhance their applicability. The results showed that entropy-based indices were most effective when the classification parameter was set below 1 for LAI and below 20 for SPAD. FVC, with only two value classes, was set at 1, while CH-based indices were insensitive to classification thresholds. Additionally, the effectiveness of uniformity indices was sensitive to image spatial resolution, with 3 cm resolution performing best.

Temporal analysis of the indices revealed that, except for CH, uniformity rose rapidly from tillering to heading stage, remained stable through mid-filling stage, and declined thereafter. Among the 20 indices, the LJ index at flowering stage showed the strongest correlation with yield (r = –0.760) and biomass (r = –0.801), outperforming traditional means (yield: r = 0.726; biomass: r = 0.754). Hierarchical clustering based on yield and biomass further confirmed inter-varietal and inter-annual differences in growth uniformity, indicating a significant positive correlation between population uniformity and final yield and biomass.

(2) Monitoring of Key Wheat Phenological Stages and Phenological Uniformity (PU)

The concept of phenological uniformity (PU) was proposed and quantitatively evaluated across the entire study area. High-frequency UAV hyperspectral imagery was acquired from booting to early grain filling stages, accompanied by daily manual phenological surveys for all plots. The survey revealed fluctuating PU values across the study area, mostly ranging between 0.5 and 0.8, with peak PU (~0.8) observed during heading and flowering stage. Multiple classification models were compared, including K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), SpectrumFormer (SF), and End-to-End Mixhop Superpixel-Based Graph Convolutional Network (EMS-GCN). EMS-GCN outperformed others, achieving 86.2% overall accuracy and a Kappa coefficient of 0.804. Classification accuracies for booting, heading, flowering, and early filling stage were 86.4%, 84.7%, 87.7%, and 87.4%, respectively.

Based on EMS-GCN results, PLSR (Partial Least Squares Regression) models using booting-stage spectral data successfully predicted heading (R² = 0.883, RMSE = 2.012 d, MAE = 1.584 d) and flowering dates (R² = 0.923, RMSE = 2.463 d, MAE = 1.977 d), with mean absolute errors below 2 days. Dates when cumulative number of heading and flowering plots reached 80% (PU = 0.8) differed by only 1–2 days from field observations. Furthermore, model accuracy during flowering stage was found to increase with higher PU, highlighting PU’s value in improving phenological prediction.

(3) Yield and Biomass Prediction Based on Uniformity Indices

By integrating growth uniformity indices and hyperspectral features with high phenological uniformity, the accuracy of yield and biomass prediction was effectively improved. To evaluate the predictive value of UI in yield and biomass modeling, MLR (Multiple Linear Regression) models were built using the most relevant uniformity indices—FE, LJ, SJ, and CCV—compared to models using mean agronomic values (FM, LM, SM, CM). The UI-based model yielded higher prediction accuracy: yield R² = 0.592, RMSE = 1.178 t/ha, CV = 0.162; biomass R² = 0.735, RMSE = 2.325 t/ha, CV = 0.137. In contrast, the mean-value model yielded lower performance: yield R² = 0.574, RMSE = 1.290 t/ha, CV = 0.178; biomass R² = 0.701, RMSE = 2.491 t/ha, CV = 0.149. Additionally, hyperspectral datasets with varying PU values were constructed to assess PU’s influence on prediction accuracy. Results showed a clear positive correlation. For instance, a dataset with PU = 0.69 at flowering yielded yield R² = 0.643 and biomass R² = 0.806, while PU = 1 resulted in improved performance (yield R² = 0.692, biomass R² = 0.827).

Incorporating UI into the PU = 1 hyperspectral dataset further improved model accuracy: yield R² = 0.708, RMSE = 1.084 t/ha, CV = 0.151; biomass R² = 0.847, RMSE = 1.782 t/ha, CV = 0.105. Feature importance analysis using RReliefF showed that UI features consistently ranked among the top contributors, confirming their predictive value. To clarify the contribution of each input feature, the RReliefF feature selection algorithm was employed to analyze the importance of hyperspectral reflectance and growth uniformity indices. The results indicated that growth uniformity indices consistently exhibited high feature weights across multiple models, suggesting their active role in enhancing model performance. In summary, both the growth uniformity index and phenological uniformity (PU) significantly improved the accuracy of wheat yield and biomass predictions, demonstrating substantial potential for application in high-precision agricultural remote sensing modeling.

This study established a quantitative monitoring framework for wheat growth uniformity and phenological uniformity and systematically evaluated their application value in remote sensing-based prediction. The findings confirmed that incorporating uniformity metrics notably enhanced the prediction accuracy of yield and biomass and can inform the optimal timing of remote sensing data acquisition. The proposed method exhibits strong adaptability and scalability, offering a novel technical pathway and theoretical foundation for crop population monitoring and precision agricultural management.

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中图分类号:

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开放日期:

 2025-06-07    

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