随着城市化脚步的日益加快，城市人口的不断增加与城市土地的日益稀缺成为制约城市可持续发展的一对矛盾。为此，政府采取了住房商品化分配与“建立以经济适用房为主体、包括商品房以及廉租房等多种住房供应体系”等政策措施以弥补市场失灵，但由于住房市场本身存在的信息不对称和各市场参与者的自身利益不一致，导致政府调控失灵。这篇论文就是在我国城市化发展的大背景下，试图运用博弈理论来建立一套适合于我国住房市场特征的模型，并对模型进行分析以尝试找出住房市场的运行规律，在此基础上，进而提出科学可行的政策意见，提供有利于住房市场稳定发展的政府调控方案。 本文的研究内容如下： 第一章主要阐述了本文的研究背景和研究目的，简述了本文的研究思路。 第二章对国内外关于房地产市场运行规律和住房市场模型研究状况进行了综述，并提出本文研究的理论价值和现实意义。 第三章对构建住房市场博弈模型进行了理论分析，包括界定了住房市场及其运行规律概念的内涵和外延，提出本文的研究假说，并就博弈论和委托——代理理论进行简要的论述，以及阐述了理论运用的现实依据。 第四章是本文的核心部分，首先详细介绍了博弈模型的构建过程，包括：①参与人的类型、信息和行动集合，支付函数，以及外部参数的符号化假设；②根据住房市场的信息结构应用机制设计理论建立模型，包括政府设计土地供给机制，不同成本的开发商选择开发用地类型，政府设计住房供给机制，不同收入的购房者选择住房类型；③求解模型的均衡解，计算得出各参与方在该机制下寻求效用最大化的均衡结果。其次对结果进行分析，根据外生变量是否可变以及是否受到替代市场的边际影响，本文分别分析了短期内的静态内部均衡，存在投机行为的市场均衡调整和允许边际冲击的动态稳定均衡，以及长期下允许外生变量总量冲击的市场运行规律。 第五章是本文的实证部分，选取了北京市2001年以来住房增量市场的相关季度数据并进行指数化处理，运用Eviews计量软件对各研究变量建立线性回归模型，通过显著性，自相关和协整关系等检验验证了博弈模型的均衡结果，并在实证的基础上进一步解释了各运行规律间差异的现实原因。 第六章首先总结了本文的研究结论，包括：①住房市场的运行遵从各参与方博弈的均衡策略。②住房价格的快速上涨与当前住房市场供应结构失衡密切相关。③政府对住房市场供应结构的规制是影响市场走向的关键。④不同时间跨度下住房市场的运行规律不尽相同。并据此结合政府出台的相关政策提出4点针对性的政策建议。最后考虑本文研究对象的有关设定对相关论题后续研究的实证完善和理论扩展提出了一些展望。

With the pace of urbanization is accelerating, the continuous creasing in urban population and urban land increasingly scarce become a contradiction of bounding the urban sustainable development. Therefore, the Government has adopted a series of policies and measures including the commercialization of housing distribution and "to build affordable housing as the main body, including commercial housing and cheap renting housing supply system" to compensate for market failure. But because of the information asymmetry in housing market and the inconsistency in self-interest of market participants, leading to government regulation failures. This paper is in the background of China's urbanization development, trying to use game theory to build a model suitable for China's housing market characteristics, and to identify the operation of housing market by analyzing the model. On this basis, further to the feasible scientific policy advice, and government regulation program provision conducive to the stable development of housing market. The main content of this paper is expressed as follow: Chapter one gives an introduction of research background, research purpose and research approach. Chapter two summarizes the research status of laws of the real estate market operation and models of the housing market at home and abroad and puts forward the theoretical value and practical significance in this paper. Chapter three analyzes the feasibility of building a game theory model of the housing market theoretically, including the definition of the housing market and the connotation and extension of its concept of operation, the hypotheses put forward in this paper, the game theory and the principal-agent theory discussed briefly, and the practical basis for theory using expounded. Chapter four is the key part of this paper. Firstly, the process of constructing the game model has been introduced in detail, including: a) Symbolizing the assumptions on the type , information , action profile and payoff function of players，and external parameters as well. b) According to the information structure of the housing market, the mechanism design theory is use to build model, including the official design of land supply mechanism when the developers with different costs choose the developing land type, the official design of housing supply mechanism when house buyers with different income choose the type of housing. c) Solving the equilibrium solution of functions: find out an equilibrium result under each player in the mechanism to maximize their utilities. This was followed by an analysis of the results: according to the exogenous variables is variable or not and is subject to the marginal impact of alternative markets or not, the paper analyzed the short-term static internal equilibrium, the market equilibrium adjustment within speculative behavior and the dynamic stable equilibrium allowing marginal impact, as well as the long-term market operation law allowing the general impact of exogenous variables. Chapter five is the empirical part of this paper. The related quarterly data about incremental housing market in Beijing since 2001 has been selected and for indexing treatment. The Eviews measuring software is used in the establishment of linear regression model. As a result, the equilibrium solution of game theory model is approved by the significant, autocorrelation and cointegration tests. And on the basis of empirical test further to explain the difference among various operation laws. Chapter six firstly sums up the conclusions of this paper, including: a) The incremental housing market is running under the rules of equilibrium strategy of various players in the game. b) The rapid increase in housing price is closely related to the unbalanced structure of the current housing market supply. c) The governmental regulation of the housing market supply structure is the key to influencing the market trend. d) The operation law of incremental housing market varies in different time-span. Secondly four specific suggestions are given according to the related government policy. Finally, a few of prospects on following empirical perfection and theory extension study on relevant issues are predicted considering the research object this paper presumed.