改革开放以来，随着我国农产品市场流通体制不断演进，市场调节成分越来越高，相应的农产品生产经营者面临的价格风险在不断增加，价格风险已成为农产品生产经营者面临的主要经营风险。价格波动对农民来说，轻则收入减少，削弱农民自身及家庭的发展基础；重则投资难以收回，来年生产投入无法保障。这既影响生产者的决策行为和消费者的福利所在，也得对整个国民经济的不平衡发展起到了推波助澜的作用，使得在过去计划经济条件下形成的方针政策的有效性面临严重挑战。以往的年份中经常出现“谷贱伤农”和“买难卖难”的现象正是农产品价格波动的现实表现，以上的特征事实给我们传导了一条明白无误的信息：改革开放后，在市场经济尚未完全建立和完善的情况下，农产品价格波动的幅度和频率有加大和加快的趋势，对以小规模生产经营为主的我国农业生产者及国家宏观经济稳定带来较大的负面影响。 随着农产品市场化改革的开展和不断深入，黄岩蜜桔从以前的“皇帝的女儿不愁嫁”变为竞争市场上的一员，同样面临着市场供求规律的作用和资源相对稀缺的约束。与此同时，由于黄岩蜜桔受到土地资源的竞争性的压力、生产方式的转变、农民就业选择的多元化、政府政策和制度的局限性、经济结构与资金投入的非农化等多方面影响，黄岩蜜桔的生产在出现大幅滑坡的同时更表现为市场价格的剧烈波动形式。这既影响生产者的决策行为和消费者的福利所在，也得对整个经济的不平衡发展起到了推波助澜的作用 以均衡价格理论为基础，结合黄岩市黄岩蜜桔生产与价格的统计数据和作者对黄岩蜜桔生产、包装及销售等环节各主体的调研所得数据，本研究全面探讨了黄岩蜜桔历史和现时的生产及价格波动的情况，在此基础上，作者对黄岩蜜桔价格剧烈波动的各种影响因素进行了梳理，并阐述了每个影响因素对黄岩蜜桔价格波动的作用机理。最后，作者对稳定黄岩蜜桔生产与价格提出了相关的政策建议。 研究结果表明：从1998年到2007年，从黄岩地区柑桔的产量整体上呈下降趋势，年际间存在小幅波动。从价格来看，黄岩蜜桔分品种产品的各种价格都存在较大的波动。从品种上看，作为最具竞争力的品种本地早的价格明显高于其他品种，且价格波动幅度也比其他的品种要大很多。其中国际和国内柑桔生产、种植成本上升、柑桔生产能力下降、柑桔有效结果园减少、组织化程度较低和黄岩蜜桔销售组织规模小是影响黄岩蜜桔生产或供给最主要的影响因素。

Since reform and opening up, China's primary products market circulation system continues to evolve, the market adjustment component increases, the corresponding operators of agricultural products face increasing price risk, price risk has become the main risks for farmers. For farmers, the Price fluctuation, can reduce their income, weaken the farmers and their family’s development foundation; what is more ,it is even difficult to recover the investment ,and guarantee the production inputs in the coming year. This will not only affect the decision-making behavior of producers and the welfare of consumers, but also play a role in adding fuel to the flames for the imbalance of the entire national economy, making the validity of the principles and policies to face serious challenges under the planned economy in the past. The phenomenon of low prices injuring the farmers and having difficulty in selling and buying, are the real performance of price fluctuations of agricultural products. The characteristics of the above facts give us a clear information: after the reform and opening up, under the situation of the fact that the market economy has not fully set up and being perfect, the amplitude and frequency of the fluctuations in agricultural prices have the trend of increasing and speeding up, and bring a larger negative impact to the state's macro-economic stability and the agricultural producers in our country where most of farmers manage a small scale. With the development of the agricultural market-oriented reform, Huangyan sweet orange becomes a part of competitive market, from the previous situation that "don’t worry about the marriage as the daughter of the emperor ", faced the same law of supply and demand, limited by the fact of the scarcity of resources. At the same time, because of the effects of the competitive pressures of land resources, changes in production methods, farmers diversified employment options, government policies and the limitations of the system, economic structure and funding of non-agricultural inputs，Huangyan sweet orange production decreases at a large scale, and at the same time, the fluctuations of the market price becomes more serious This will not only affect the decision-making behavior of producers and the welfare of the consumers, but play a role in adding fuel to the flames to the an imbalanced development of the whole economy. Based on the equilibrium price theory, combined with the sweet orange production in Huangyan and price statistics and the research data of production, packaging and marketing aspect, this study describes the history of Huangyan sweet orange, current production and price fluctuations. According to this, the author described the influential factors of the Huangyan sweet orange price fluctuations and the price fluctuations mechanism of Huangyan sweet orange. Finally, the author gives the relevant production and price recommendations of Huangyan sweet orange. From the analysis of this paper, we can receive some conclusions: Huangyan sweet orange’s product is decreasing from the 1998 to 2007, and there is small fluctuation in it. All kinds of Huangyan sweet orange experienced the price fluctuation .Some important factors influence the supply of Huangyan sweet orange.