中文题名: | 无锡市金融业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究 |
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学号: | 2004106028 |
保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 020204 |
学科名称: | 金融学(含:保险学) |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 经济学硕士 |
学校: | 南京农业大学 |
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研究方向: | 商业银行管理 |
第一导师姓名: | |
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完成日期: | 2008-06-06 |
答辩日期: | 2008-06-06 |
外文题名: | EMPIRICAL STUDY ON FINACE DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMY |
中文关键词: | 金融发展 ; 经济增长 ; 协整检验 ; Granger因果检验 |
外文关键词: | Financial development ; Economic growth ; Cointegration test ; Granger causality test |
中文摘要: |
对于金融发展与经济增长的关系,一般观点认为两者互为因果。Gupta(1984)和Jung(1986)分别使用格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法,对发达国家和发展中国家的实证检验表明两者之间互为因果。
借鉴国外的研究成果,许多学者对中国金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,然而,两者之间的相关关系及因果关系至今未能达成一致,结论的差异主要在于指标选择上的不同。此外,考虑到中国地区金融发展水平的不平衡性显著,已有学者对中国特定地区的金融发展与经济增长关系进行了探索性的研究。研究结论对本文具有一定的启示。
为使研究结论具有针对性和应用性,本文利用无锡市1993-2005年间金融发展及经济增长的相关数据,对两者的关系进行了实证检验。协整关系检验结果显示,金融相关率FIR和金融市场化率指标FMR与人均国内生产总值变动率DGDP之间存在显著的长期相关关系,这表明无锡金融发展与经济增长之间有密切联系,其联系包括金融发展的规模扩张和效率变化。Granger因果关系检验结果显示,金融相关率FIR和金融市场化率指标FMR与人均国内生产总值变动率DGDP之间存在双向的因果关系,这表明金融发展规模的扩张和金融效率的改善与提高对经济增长都有促进作用,反过来,无锡市的经济增长又全面推动了当地金融发展。
基于实证研究的结论,本文提出三点政策建议:1、发展多元化的金融体系,构筑经济运作的基础;2、提高金融资产增长质量,抑制经济过度虚拟化;3、全面促进经济增长,推动金融业的发展。
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外文摘要: |
Regarding of the relationship of financial development and economic growth, the general view was that the two reciprocal causation. Gupta(1984)and Jung(1986)did Granger causality test and demonstration test on developed and developing countries, and the results showed that the two reciprocal causation.
Reference of the results of foreign research, many scholars of China's did empirical analysis on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. But the relationship between the two did not have a agreement so far, conclusions of the main difference lies in the different choice of target. In addition, taking into account the significantly imbalance of China's financial development, Chinese scholars have done the exploratory study on the relation between financial development and economic growth in the specific areas. The conclusions of the study had some inspiration to this article.
For the direction and application of the study’s conclusion, the paper used the data of financial development and economic growth in Wuxi city in 1993-2005 to do empirical test on the relationship between the two. The results of cointegration test showed that there was a significant correlation between FIR, FMR and DGDP in the long-term. This showed that there was a close relationship between the financial development and economic growth in Wuxi city, and their ties included the expansion of the scale of financial development and changed efficiency. The results of Granger causality test showed that there was a two-way causal relationship between FIR, FMR and DGDP, which showed that the expansion of the scale of financial development and the improvement and enhancement of the financial efficiency could promote the economic growth, in turn, the economic growth would promote the local financial development in Wuxi city.
Based on the conclusion of empirical study, the paper raised three policy proposals: 1. Developing diversified financial system, and building the foundation of economic operation; 2. Improving the quality of financial assets growth, and restraining the over virtualization of economy; 3. Promoting economic growth comprehensively, and developing the finance industry.
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中图分类号: | F831 |
馆藏号: | 2004106028 |
开放日期: | 2020-06-30 |