为全面贯彻落实科学发展观，促进沿海地区又好又快发展，江苏省政府提出了《江苏沿海地区综合开发战略》。灌河口区域是沿海开发战略的重要组成部分，加快灌河口区域开发，是江苏省“十一五”规划纲要中优化产业结构、推进区域协调发展的一项重要任务。在开发建设的过程中，如何避免生态环境的恶化，实现经济、社会与环境的和谐、可持续发展，是需要进一步深入研究的重要课题。灌河口区域的开发建设，必将增加所在区域的生态环境压力，因此开展本项研究，对实现区域经济、社会与环境之间的协调发展具有十分重要的指导意义。 本文采用主成分分析法、模糊综合评判法和逐步回归分析法，针对研究区域的生态环境特点，根据现有基础资料，对研究区域的生态承载力状况进行了回顾分析，探讨了区域生态承载力变化的主要原因，并预测了研究区域未来十二年生态承载力的发展趋势，提出了维持研究区域生态承载力的对策。 本文研究的主要结论有： （1）从资源承载力、环境承载力、社会影响力及生态弹性力四个方面的15个指标构建了研究区域生态承载力评价指标体系。 （2）分别对2002~2005年、2005~2007年生态承载力进行线性回归相关分析，R2分别为0.9232*和0.9279*，说明生态承载力与年份显著相关。研究区域生态承载力从2002年至2005年由0.429下降为-0.318，至2007年又上升为0.235。 （3）2005年后，资源承载力、环境承载力、社会影响力、生态弹性力均有所好转，尤其是社会影响力较大提高，说明人类社会活动对环境的影响已逐步转变成支持力，目前人类在开发利用资源的同时，已经开始关注自身活动对生态系统及周围环境的影响，并开始采取措施，努力调整资源、生态环境与人类社会之间的关系。 （4）从2005年后，区域生态承载力由-0.318逐渐上升为0.235，由不可承载逐步变为可承载。分析其原因发现，随着研究区域所在地的各种生态建设、环境保护规划的实施，通过转变产业结构模式、植树造林的开展，能够逐步提高研究区域所在地的植被覆盖率，缓解水土流失状况，改善原有的脆弱生态环境，使区内生物多样性和生态功能得到逐步的恢复。 （5）提高研究区域生态承载力的对策：区内工业发展需以资源环境的持有存量为基础，引进高新技术，调整产业结构和布局，发展循环经济和绿色环保产业，促进资源的循环利用；同时建立现代农业发展体系，大力发展生态农业，以较低的资源投入换取较高的农业产出，实现农业与工业的和谐健康发展。

To comprehensively implement the scientific development concept, promote good and fast development of coastal areas, coastal areas of Jiangsu provincial government put forward a comprehensive development strategy. Guanhe estuary regional is an important part of coastal develop strategy, speed up the Guanhe estuary regional development, is an important task to optimize the industrial structure, promote the coordinated development of the region of Jiangsu province "Eleventh Five-Year" plan. In the process of development and construction, how to avoid the deterioration of ecological environment, realize economic, social and environmental harmony, sustainable development, is the important issues need for further in-depth study. Exploitation in Guanhe estuary regional, is bound to increase pressure on the ecological environment. Therefore, to carry out this study have great significance in guiding to the achievement of regional economic, social and environmental coordinated development. In this paper, using principal component analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and stepwise regression analysis of SPSS, evaluation on ecological carrying capacity (ECC)of petrochemical industry exploitation in Guanhe estuary regional was studied. At the same time，the main reasons which caused changing of the regional ECC were analyzed. Furthermore，the regional ECC during the coming 12 years was forecasted, countermea sures were made to maintain the ecological carrying capacity of Guanhe estuary regional. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: （1）The indicators for evaluating regional ECC were put forward, which include 15 indicators of the resources carrying capacity, social influence, environmental carrying capacity and ecosystem flexibility four aspects. （2）Carrying out linear regression analysis to ecological carrying capacity respectively between 2002 and 2005, from 2005 to 2007, R2 were 0.9232* and 0.9279*. The results show that Ecological carrying capacity that was significantly correlated with the year. The ECC had been declining from 0.429 to -0.318 during 2002 to 2005 while had been increasing to 0.235 in 2007. （3）After 2005, resources carrying capacity, environmental carrying capacity, social influence, ecological flexibility have improved strength, especially the social influence greatly enhanced, this shows that Human social activities that impact on the environment has been gradually transformed into supportive. At present, while human develop and utilize resources, begin to pay attention to their activities on the ecosystems and the impact of the surrounding environment, and began taking measures to adjust the relationship of resources, ecological environment and human society. （4）The value of the regional ECC increase from -0.318 to 0.235 after 2005, the state of the regional ECC become tolerable from intolerable. It was further found that resources have became abundant and ecosystem quality have got better due to application of some effective measures such as ecosystem reestablish, environmental planning and protection and regulation of industrial structure. All of which have brought better changes of biodiversity, ecosystem functions in the Guanhe estuary regional. （5）Some suitable measures for keeping better situation of ECC were put forward. As the studying district is complicated systematical ecosystem including agriculture and industry, the development of industry should be based on the conditions of resources and environment. At the same time, the development of hi-techniques, adjust the industrial structure and layout, acceleration of resources recycling and green environmental protection industry should be put into effect. Besides, through development of modern agriculture system, enhance the development of ecological agriculture and agriculture production with high benefit and low cost, harmonious healthy development of agriculture and industry should be realized.