中文题名: | 宁波市金融发展与经济增长的实证研究 |
姓名: | |
学号: | 20055206020 |
保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 120301 |
学科名称: | 农业经济管理 |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 农业推广硕士 |
学校: | 南京农业大学 |
院系: | |
专业: | |
研究方向: | 农村金融 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
完成日期: | 2008-12-07 |
答辩日期: | 2008-12-07 |
外文题名: | THESUBSTANTIALRESEARCHBETWEENTHEFINANCIALDEVELOPMENTANDECONOMICGROWTHINNINGBO |
中文关键词: | 金融发展 ; 经济增长 ; 协整检验 ; Granger因果检验 |
外文关键词: | financial development ; economic growth ; co-integration test ; Granger causality test |
中文摘要: |
经济增长是人民生活水平提高、社会进步、政治稳定的首要前提。不断的探索并发现促进经济增长的新要素,并发挥其在经济增长中的积极作用是经济学家追求的永恒目标。关于金融发展对经济增长的促进作用已在大多数国家得到了实证证实。金融被誉为现代经济的核心。但是,目前国内外研究的成果主要集中在国家层面,很少具体深入到各地区。由于各区域经济和金融发展的独特性,导致在不同的地域范围内,两者之间作用关系有所差别。关于区域性金融发展与经济增长的关系研究,对于丰富区域范围内金融发展与经济增长关系理论在中国的理论研究,有针对性的促进区域性金融和经济的和谐发展,具有十分重要的现实和理论意义。
为使研究结论具有针对性和应用性,本文利用宁波市1991-2005年间金融发展及经济增长的相关数据,对两者的关系进行了实证检验。协整关系检验结果显示,金融相关率FIR和金融市场化率指标FMR与人均国内生产总值变动率DGDP之间存在显著的长期相关关系,这表明宁波金融发展与经济增长之间有密切联系,其联系包括金融发展的规模扩张和效率变化。Granger因果关系检验结果显示,金融相关率FIR和金融市场化率指标FMR与人均国内生产总值变动率DGDP之间存在双向的因果关系,这表明金融发展规模的扩张和金融效率的改善与提高对经济增长都有促进作用,反过来,宁波市的经济增长又全面推动了当地金融发展。
基于实证研究的结论,本文提出五点政策建议:1、密切关注经济态势,积极应对金融挑战;2、强化金融监督,带动金融体系健康发展;3、大力推进金融创新,切实改善金融服务;4、政策引导,促进民营经济健康发展;5、发展现代服务业,加快经济转型升级战略目标。
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外文摘要: |
The economic growth is the most important premise in improving the standard of living, the society progresses and the political stability. Unceasing to explore and find the new elements which can cause economic growth, and to display their positive role in the economic development, is the eternal pursuit of goals of the economists. The promotion on the financial development to economic growth has been confirmed positive in most countries. Finance has a reputation as the modern economy core. However, the present results of research in the domestic and foreign focus on the field of nation, rarely penetrate into various regions. Due to the unique of the regional economic and financial development, the relationship between the financial development and economic growth in unique region has great practical and theoretical significance in rich regional scope of financial development and economic growth in China’s fundamental research, pointing the harmonious development of economy and financial.
In order for the practicability and pertinence of the conclusion of the study, this article use the data about financial development and economic growth from 1999 to 2005 in Ningbo. The co-integration test results show a significant correlation for long-term among FIR, FMR and DGDP, which indicates that Ningbo's financial development and economic growth come into close contact. Granger causality test results show the existence of two-way causal relationship among the FIR,FMR and DGDP, which show the development of the financial scale of the expansion and the improve the financial efficiency both impulse economic growth. On the other hand, Ningbo's economic growth also promote Local financial development.
Based on the conclusion of the demonstration study, five policy recommendations are listed in this paper:1. Pay close attention to the economic situation and actively cope with the financial challenges;2. Strengthening financial supervision, and promote the healthy development of the financial system; 3. Vigorously promote financial innovation to improve financial services; 4. Policies to guide and promote the healthy development of private economy; 5. The development of modern service industries, to speed up economic transformation and upgrading the strategic objectives.
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中图分类号: | F304.5 |
馆藏号: | 20055206020 |
开放日期: | 2020-06-30 |