全球气候变化威胁着生态环境和人类健康，全球变暖带来的各种冲击日渐显 著。中国是世界第一碳排放大国，面临的气候问题同样严峻。为此，中国提出3060 碳达峰碳中和目标，要求全面推进清洁生产，形成绿色低碳的消费体系。实现双 碳目标，不仅需要在生产环节推进低碳转型升级，更要考虑消费环节的碳减排潜 力，运用消费者对低碳产品的需求引导生产者减少碳排放。在《国家发展改革委 等部门关于加快建立产品碳足迹管理体系的意见》等政策文件的推动下，部分企 业采用了碳中和标签，以表明产品通过碳减排和碳抵消实现在生产使用过程中的 净零排放，即碳排放减至零。但消费者愿意为碳中和产品支付怎样的价格，如何 运用消费者对碳中和产品的需求引导企业积极推进碳减排和碳抵消，仍有待进一 步分析。因此，研究消费者对碳中和产品的偏好和支付意愿，分析碳减排和碳抵 消方式对消费者选择的影响差异，将对企业制定碳中和产品生产决策、优化碳中 和产品包装信息以及国家推进统一碳中和标签认证和完善碳交易市场具有重要 意义。 畜牧业碳排放是我国碳排放的主要来源之一，牛奶是畜牧业产业链中具有代 表性的产品。因此，本文以牛奶为研究对象，通过回顾消费者需求理论、信息不 对称理论与随机效用理论，同时运用虚拟选择实验法和真实选择实验法开展问卷 调查，基于591份虚拟选择实验样本数据和260份真实选择实验样本数据，构建 随机参数Logit模型对调研数据进行实证分析。研究内容主要包括：第一，探究 消费者对碳中和标签的偏好和支付意愿；第二，综合考虑碳中和产品的碳减排和 碳抵消方式，分析产品的碳抵消量、碳抵消项目类型、获得的碳抵消项目认证以 及是否产自低碳牧场对消费者产品选择的影响；第三，探究不同的碳中和产品信 息组合将对消费者支付意愿的影响。第四，比较虚拟选择实验和真实选择实验结 果的差异，探究消费者在虚拟情境下的支付意愿与真实情境下的支付行为的偏差。 研究结果表明：第一，相较于普通牛奶，消费者更加偏好碳中和牛奶，愿意 为碳中和牛奶支付更高的价格。第二，不同的碳抵消、碳减排方式对消费者来说 具有不同的价值，虚拟实验中抵消25%碳排放对消费的影响不显著，其余属性都 显著影响消费者的选择。碳抵消量、碳抵消项目、牧场类型都正向影响消费者的 选择偏好，而相比较于政府认证的碳抵消项目，消费对于第三方认证的碳抵消项目更不认可。第三，通过对消费者福利的测算，研究发现标注牛奶的碳抵消、碳 减排信息有助于提升消费者福利。第四，支付意愿和支付行为之间存在偏差。真 实实验除了抵消 50%碳排放不显著以外，其余属性对消费者影响与虚拟实验一 致，在支付意愿方面，真实实验平均支付意愿为虚拟实验的1.48倍，在合理的区 间之内。 基于研究结果，本文认为企业应积极申请碳中和产品认证，公开透明地展示 碳中和产品的碳减排和碳抵消方案，告知消费者该产品的碳抵消量、碳抵消项目 以及碳抵消项目认证。具体来说：关于产品的碳抵消量信息，可以设置一个明确 的标准或阈值帮助消费者区分不同的碳中和产品；选择碳抵消项目时，可以考虑 优先选择由政府机构颁发认证的碳抵消项目，以及与植树造林相关的碳抵消项目。 同时，政府应该考虑制定统一的碳中和产品标准和认证程序，以规范碳中和产品 市场，并持续完善碳交易市场机制，帮助企业获得多样化的碳抵消项目。

Global climate change threatens the ecological environment and human health, and the various impacts brought by global warming are becoming increasingly significant. China is the world's largest carbon emitter and faces equally severe climate issues. To this end, China has proposed the goal of peaking carbon emissions at 3060 and achieving carbon neutrality, requiring comprehensive promotion of clean production and the formation of a green and low-carbon consumption system. To achieve the dual carbon goal, it is not only necessary to promote low-carbon transformation and upgrading in the production process, but also to consider the carbon reduction potential in the consumption process, and use consumer demand for low carbon products to guide producers to reduce carbon emissions. Driven by policy documents such as the Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments on Accelerating the Establishment of a Product Carbon Footprint Management System, some enterprises have adopted carbon neutrality labels to indicate that their products achieve net zero emissions during production and use through carbon reduction and offsetting, that is, carbon emissions are reduced to zero. However, further analysis is needed on how consumers are willing to pay for carbon neutral products and how to use their demand for carbon neutral products to guide enterprises to actively promote carbon reduction and offsetting. Therefore, studying consumer preferences and willingness to pay for carbon neutrality products, analyzing the differences in the impact of carbon reduction and carbon offsetting methods on consumer choices, will be of great significance for enterprises to make production decisions for carbon neutrality products, optimize packaging information for carbon neutrality products, and promote unified carbon neutrality certification and improve the carbon trading market. Carbon emissions from animal husbandry are one of the main sources of carbon emissions in China, and milk is a representative product in the animal husbandry industry chain. Therefore, this article takes milk as the research object. By reviewing consumer demand theory, information asymmetry theory, and random utility theory,and using virtual selection experiment and real selection experiment methods to conduct a questionnaire survey, a random parameter Logit model is constructed based on 591 virtual selection experiment sample data and 260 real selection experiment sample data to empirically analyze the survey data. The research mainly includes: firstly, exploring consumer preferences and willingness to pay for carbon neutrality labels; Secondly, comprehensively consider the carbon reduction and offsetting methods of carbon neutral products, analyze the carbon offsetting amount of the product, the type of carbon offsetting project, the obtained carbon offsetting project certification, and the impact of whether it is produced from low-carbon ranches on consumer product choices; Thirdly, compare the differences between the results of virtual choice experiments and real choice experiments, and explore the deviation between consumer willingness to pay in virtual contexts and payment behavior in real contexts. Fourthly, explore the impact of different combinations of carbon neutral product information on consumer willingness to pay. The research results indicate that firstly, compared to regular milk, consumers prefer carbon neutral milk and are willing to pay higher prices for it. Secondly, different carbon offsetting and emission reduction methods have different values for consumers. In virtual experiments, offsetting 25% of carbon emissions has no significant impact on consumption, while other attributes significantly affect consumer choices. The amount of carbon offsetting, carbon offsetting projects, and types of ranches all have a positive impact on consumer preferences, and compared to government certified carbon offsetting projects, consumers are less likely to recognize third-party certified carbon offsetting projects. Thirdly, in real experiments, except for offsetting 50% of carbon emissions that are not significant, the impact of other attributes on consumers is consistent with that of virtual experiments. In terms of willingness to pay, the average willingness to pay in real experiments is 1.48 times that of virtual experiments, which is within a reasonable range. Fourthly, through the calculation of consumer welfare, the study found that labeling carbon offsetting and carbon reduction information in milk can help improve consumer welfare. Based on the research results, this article believes that enterprises should actively apply for carbon neutrality product certification, publicly and transparently display the carbon reduction and offsetting plans of carbon neutrality products, inform consumers of the carbon offsetting amount, carbon offsetting projects, and carbon offsetting project certification of the product. Specifically, regarding the carbon offset information of products, a clear standard or threshold can be set to help consumers distinguish between different carbon neutral products; When choosing carbon offsetting projects, priority can be given to carbon offsetting projects certified by government agencies, as well as carbon offsetting projects related to afforestation. At the same time, the government should consider establishing unified standards and certification procedures for carbon neutrality products to regulate the carbon neutrality product market, and continuously improve the carbon trading market mechanism to help enterprises obtain diversified carbon offsetting projects.