随着金融市场的不断开发和利率市场化的稳步推进，商业银行之间的竞争越来越激烈，为应付金融脱媒和同业竞争，不少商业银行都提出了转型升级的目标，大力发展零售业务成为了众多银行的共同选择，而个人信用贷款就成为许多银行争夺市场份额，抢占客户资源的重要手段。但相较于传统的抵质押贷款而言，个人信用贷款的风险无疑更大，更加需要准确的识别和判断各类风险因子对于违约的影响程度。 本文在回顾国内外研究现状的基础之上，选取长三角区域性银行-南京银行作为研究样本，简要介绍该行的发展现状和个人信用贷款状况，在关于违约的定义上，鉴于违约定义的复杂性，本文将借款人本金或利息连续逾期60天（不含）以上的个人信用贷款就定义为处于违约状态的贷款。在数据选择上，本文选择长三角区域性商业银行南京银行个人信用贷款的数据作为分析样本，选取了借款人收入水平、借款人年龄、借款人受教育程度、借款人职业所处行业、借款人所在区域、借款用途、借款金额、借款期限等八个因素作为分析变量，并按照一定的规则将其量化分类。在模型使用上，采用国内外分析贷款违约较为普遍的Logistic方法，并采用逐步回归的方式，剔除回归中系数不显著的因素，直至所有的因子系数均显著。 通过参数估计我们发现，借款人收入水平、接受教育程度、借款人职业所处行业、借款金额这四个因素对于违约有着显著的影响，其中影响程度最大的为借款人收入水平，与一般印象不一致的是，借款金额的大小与违约率的高低呈现了负向关系。在此基础之上，本文对商业银行发放个人信用贷款提出了简要的政策建议。

With the continuous development of financial market and the steadily promotion of interest rate liberalization, the competition among commercial banks is more and more intense. Many commercial banks through the development of retail bank to response this shock, and personal fiduciary loans has become to win the competitive advantage the sharp weapon. At the same time, the risk of personal fiduciary loans can not be ignored, how to distinguish influencing factors of default have been paid more and more attention. This crticle first reviews the research status at home and abroad, and compares the products of major personal fiduciary loans at home. Because of complexity of defaut, we define the default as principal or interest has been behind in payment more than 60 days. In this paper, we select a regional commercial bank in yangtze river delta-bank of Nanjing as sample, and select income, age, education, vocation, region, purpose, amount, time as anaylsis variables and use some rules to quantify them. We adopt logistic regression method to estimate parameters. We find that the factors of income, education, vocation, amout have a significant effect on default of personal fiduciary loans. Unlike the general impression, a negative relation between of amout and the probilty of default, it means that the lager amout of loan, the lower default probility of loan. On the basis of regression, we propose the policy recommendations of how to decrese the risk of default for commercial bank.