柑橘是我国第二大水果，其种植面积和产量规模已经居于世界首位。柑橘是城乡居民重要的消费品，柑橘产业与居民生活密切相关。随着收入的提高和生活品质的改善，在居民膳食结构中占到越来越高的比重。柑橘还是我国出口优势农产品之一，柑橘产业的重要性不言而喻。在当前柑橘产业的发展态势之下，构建柑橘供给反应模型，研究柑橘生产供给对价格等关键因素的反应，把握我国柑橘产业供给的变化规律，对于保障我国居民的消费需求、增加我国柑橘种植农户收益以及保持我国的农产品贸易优势均有具有重要意义。 本文在梳理了我国柑橘供给变化历程的基础上，通过时序演变、空间分布、结构特征三个方面，分别对我国柑橘种植面积变化和产量水平变化进行了描述性统计分析。分析发现，近年来我国柑橘供给量增长趋于平稳。从空间来看，总产大省并不是单产大省。 进一步，根据理论基础和文献综述，分析了我国柑橘供给反应的理论模型，并结合柑橘产业的现实特征，深入说明了由于柑橘这类园艺作物的生长周期较长，供给反应模型的因变量选取应采用单位产量而不适宜采用种植面积。在此基础之上，对单产供给模型进行机制分析，从而进行模型构建，选取合适的变量，进行实证研究。 本研究依据常年柑橘种植规模占全国80%以上的8个主产省份2001年至2015年的动态面板数据，借鉴了Nerlove模型，采用差分GMM估计方法，从比较优势的角度，分析我国柑橘产业供给变动规律，判断我国未来柑橘产业发展趋势。研究结果表明，滞后期的单产水平对柑橘当期供给水平有显著的正向影响，表明农户以往积累的高产经验越丰富，越倾向于增加柑橘单产水平。滞后期的价格对柑橘单产有显著正向影响，说明通过对价格变化的预期，农户可以较迅速地调整单产的高低。柑橘单产受到成本的负向影响，随着农业生产进入“高成本”时代，柑橘产业作为劳动力密集型农业产业，尤其深受成本上升其“害”。 农户预期比较收益与柑橘单产水平存在显著正相关，随着比较收益下降，农户倾向于对柑橘粗放管理。柑橘的单产水平还显著受到化肥农药投入及劳动投入的影响，也即投入越多，柑橘越可能形成较高的单产水平。 基于本文研究结论，要保证我国柑橘供给，需要从两个方面着手，一方面稳定柑橘种植面积，另一方面需要提高柑橘单产水平。本文主要从提高单产的角度提出以下启示：稳定柑橘市场价格，提高柑橘比较收益水平，控制柑橘栽培成本。

Citrus is the second-largest fruit in China, and its planting area and output scale have already ranked first in the world. Citrus is an important consumer product for urban and rural residents. The citrus industry is closely related to the residents'' lives. With the increase of income and the improvement of the quality of life, it has become an increasingly important part of the residents'' dietary structure. Citrus is still one of China’s export-oriented agricultural products. The importance of the citrus industry is self-evident.Under the current development trend of the citrus industry, build a citrus industry supply response model to study the response of the citrus industry''s production and supply to key factors such as comparative income, and to grasp the changing patterns of citrus industry supply in China, to protect the consumer demand of our residents, increase The income of citrus farmers in China and the maintenance of agricultural trade advantages in China are of great significance. Based on the history of citrus supply change in China, this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of changes in citrus planting area and yield levels in China in terms of temporal evolution, spatial distribution, and structural characteristics. The analysis found that in recent years, the annual increase in the cultivated area and yield per unit area of citrus in China has been significantly reduced, and the supply has tended to develop steadily. From a spatial point of view, the largest producing province is not a single province. According to the theoretical basis and literature review, this article analyzes the theory model of citrus supply response, and combined with the reality of the citrus industry characteristics, further illustrates that the dependent variable of supply response model should be per unit yield rather not the planting areas because of the citrus’ such a longer growth cycle which character horticultural crops all have. On this basis, mechanism analysis is carried out for the average production supply model, so as to build the model, select appropriate variables and conduct empirical research. This study is based on dynamic panel data from the year 2001 to 2015 of 8 major producing provinces that accounted for more than 80% of the country''s total citrus cultivation. The model was based on the Nerlove model, and the differential GMM estimation method was used to analyze the citrus industry supply in China from the perspective of comparative advantage. The laws of change will determine the future development trend of China''s citrus industry. The research results show that the lag of the yield level of citrus have significant positive influence on current supply level, which shows that more experience farmers ever got, more yield of citrus they tend to increase. The lag of price has a significant positive effect on the yield of citrus, indicating that farmers can adjust the yield of citrus quickly through the expectation of price change. Citrus production per unit is negatively affected by the cost. As agricultural production enters the era of "high cost", citrus industry, as a labor-intensive agricultural industry, is particularly affected by the rising cost. There is a significant positive correlation between farmers'' expected comparative benefits and citrus yield. With the decline of comparative benefits, farmers tend to rough citrus management. The yield level of citrus is also significantly affected by the input of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and the labor input. In other words, the higher the input, the higher the yield level of citrus is likely to be. Based on the conclusion of this paper, to ensure the supply of citrus in China, it is necessary to consider from two aspects, one is to stabilize the planting area of citrus, the other is to improve the yield level of citrus. This paper mainly puts forward the following enlightenment from the perspective of improving the yield per unit area: to stabilize the market price of citrus, to improve the comparative benefit level of citrus, and to control the cost of citrus cultivation.